With 1/3 odds from our 15 movie experts, Casey Affleck (“Manchester by the Sea”) is predicted to win Best Film Actor at Sunday’s Screen Actors Guild Awards. Affleck plays Lee Chandler, a man forced to come to terms with his troubled past when he is made guardian of his nephew in Kenneth Lonergan‘s heart-wrenching domestic drama. The film has four total nominations including Best Film Ensemble at the 2017 SAG Awards airing live Sunday on TNT and TBS.
Twelve of our 15 experts from major media outlets are predicting that Affleck will win his first SAG Award: Thelma Adams (Gold Derby), Edward Douglas (Weekend Warrior), Joyce Eng (TV Guide), Bonnie Fuller (Hollywood Life), Scott Mantz (Access Hollywood), Jack Mathews (Gold Derby), Michael Musto (Out.com), Tom O’Neil (Gold Derby), Sasha Stone (Awards Daily), Anne Thompson (Indiewire), Peter Travers (Rolling Stone) and Brian Truitt (USA Today) and
The other three experts are banking on an upset victory for Denzel Washington (“Fences”), resulting in 4/1 odds to win: Tariq Khan (Fox News), Paul Sheehan (Gold Derby) and Susan Wloszczyna (RogerEbert.com). Washington directed this adaptation of August Wilson‘s Pulitzer Prize-winning play and stars as Troy, a father struggling with race relations in 1950s America while trying to raise his family and come to terms with events from his life. Despite his acclaimed career, this would be Washington’s first SAG Award win.
Ryan Gosling (“La La Land”) comes in third place with 50/1 odds to win. Gosling plays Sebastian, a jazz pianist who falls in love with an aspiring actress in this original musical written and directed by Damien Chazelle. He previously lost at the SAG Awards for “Half Nelson” (lead in 2006), “Lars and the Real Girl” (lead in 2007) and “The Big Short” (ensemble in 2015).
In fourth place is Andrew Garfield (“Hacksaw Ridge”) with odds of 66/1. Garfield plays Desmond T. Doss in this Mel Gibson-directed war drama, a WWII American Army medic who served during the Battle of Okinawa while refusing to carry a weapon. This is his first individual SAG nomination, though he earned an ensemble bid with the cast of “The Social Network” (2010).
Rounding out the nominees, Viggo Mortensen (“Captain Fantastic”) has 80/1 odds. Mortensen plays Ben, a father raising his six children in the forests of the Pacific Northwest before being brought to civilization in this domestic drama from Matt Ross. He won a SAG Award as part of the ensemble of “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King” (2003), but this would be his first individual trophy.
Affleck is also the pick to win if you look at the overall combined racetrack odds derived from the predictions of the Experts, Gold Derby Editors who cover awards year-round, the Top 24 Users who got the top scores predicting last year’s SAG winners, the All-Star Top 24 who got the top scores when you combine the last two years’ ceremonies and the thousands of Users who make up the largest (and often savviest) bloc of predictors. Affleck has over 1,400 combined predictions with 1/3 odds, followed by Wasington in second place with 9/2 odds. Gosling follows with 22/1 odds, and then Garfield at 66/1 and Mortensen at 80/1.
Winning this award from the Screen Actors Guild is of great significance when it comes to forecasting the upcoming Oscars. Since the SAG Awards began in 1994, a whopping 18 out of 22 Best Actor SAG winners later prevailed at the Oscars in the same category, including last year’s champ Leonardo DiCaprio (“The Revenant”). The four exceptions are Benicio del Toro (“Traffic” in 2000) who actually won the Oscar’s supporting prize, Russell Crowe (“A Beautiful Mind” in 2001), Daniel Day-Lewis (“Gangs of New York” in 2002) and Johnny Depp (“Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl” in 2003).
Make your SAG picks and tell industry insiders which shows, films and performers you have out front to win on January 29. You can keep changing your predictions right up until just before the show time. Be sure to make your predictions right here. You’ll compete for a place of honor on our leaderboard and a starring role in next year’s Top 24 users (the two dozen folks who do the best predicting this year’s nominees). Read our contest rules.