‘Dancing with the Stars’ elimination predictions: Nick Lachey going home, or will Drew Scott break his fall?

Our users predicted that singer Nick Lachey would be eliminated from “Dancing with the Stars” last week on “Disney Night,” but actress Sasha Pieterse went home instead. However, Nick got the lowest score on the judges’ leaderboard for the second week in a row, and he has so far been unable to keep up as his competitors steadily improve. Does that mean he’s really done for this week?

As of this writing Nick gets leading odds of 8/15, which translates to a 65% chance of elimination, but last week he had a 55% chance of going home and managed to defy our odds, so perhaps his fan base is too strong to get rid of him so soon. Being the judges’ lowest scorer might actually be a secret advantage since his fans might have been mobilized to try to save him from the chopping block. Indeed, only one eliminated contestant this season so far has had the lowest judges’ score (Barbara Corcoran).

So if Lachey does dodge another bullet this week, who might go in his place? Ranked second in our predictions is HGTV star Drew Scott with 15/2 odds, or a 12% chance of elimination. Drew scored in the middle of the pack for his “Rainbow Connection” waltz inspired by the Muppets, so his fans may be complacent, not voting because they thought he was safe. And ranked third is actually Nick’s wife Vanessa Lachey with 11/1 odds, or an 8.2% chance of elimination. Vanessa finished second to last on the judges’ leaderboard, just two points ahead of Nick, so she’s definitely vulnerable.

Do you agree with our racetrack odds? Click on the graphs below for more detailed predictions stats about tonight’s episode, “Movie Night.”

dwts graphs

Be sure to make your predictions so that the contestants can see how they’re faring in our racetrack odds. You can keep changing your predictions until just before the next episode airs every Monday on ABC. You’ll compete to win a spot on our leaderboard and eternal bragging rights. See our contest rules and sound off with other fans in our reality TV forum. Read more Gold Derby entertainment news.

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