Suffice it to say that no one saw that coming. Literally no one — we counted. On week six of “Dancing with the Stars” the remaining contestants performed to music from boy bands and girl groups through the ages. Before the battle-of-the-sexes team dances at the end of the evening, host Tom Bergeron announced that the entire women’s team was in jeopardy even though they occupied four of the top five spots on the judges’ leaderboard last week. The bottom three spots on the leaderboard were held by male celebs, but they were all safe. So we were on our way to the season’s first shocker.
Ultimately, the unlikely dancer sent home turned out to be actress Heather Morris. The “Glee” star might have been hurt by the perception that she was overqualified for the show, having danced for a living with Beyonce and even as a contestant on “So You Think You Can Dance.” That might have led fan voters to give more support to her competitors, who are true amateurs. It might also have led the judges to critique her more strictly; last week she tied with “Bachelor” star Nick Viall on the leaderboard even though she’s a more skillful dancer by any objective standard.
None of our users who made their predictions at Gold Derby foresaw that outcome. Morris appeared almost entirely safe with 100/1 odds, which translated to a 0.4% chance of being eliminated. Instead we thought bull rider Bonner Bolton would exit the competition (13/10 odds, 45% chance of going home).
But if that weren’t enough cruel irony, Morris also shocked us by getting the highest score of the night. For her TLC-inspired rumba she received 40 out of 40, the first perfect score of the season! Combined with her team dance score (34 out of 40), she ended up with 74 out of 80, more than any other celeb. Only a handful of our users predicted that she would top the leaderboard, resulting in 12/1 odds, or an 8% chance of being the judges’ favorite. Instead, our users overwhelmingly favored singer Normani Kordei (7/5 odds, 42% chance) or gymnast Simone Biles (8/5 odds, 38% chance).
Our users were also taken by surprise by this week’s lowest scorer, though we weren’t as far off in this case. Viall landed at the bottom with 28 out of 40 for his off-kilter Beach Boys jive combined with the 33 out of 40 he received for the team dance. That brought his total to 61 for the evening.
We ranked Viall as the third most likely to get the low score with odds of 7/2, or a 20% chance. Bolton was our prediction for that result as well (7/5 odds, 41% chance), so it seems no one had a better night than he did since he managed to avoid both of the negative outcomes we were anticipating for him.
But Gold Derby’s odds did correctly forecast one result this week: how many 10s will the judges give out? More than two-thirds of us predicted five to nine perfect 10s, resulting in 4/9 odds (72% chance). And we were right: the judges doled out eight perfect scores — four for Morris, three for Kordei, and one for football player Rashad Jennings.
What did you think of “Boy Bands vs. Girl Groups” night on “Dancing with the Stars”? Next week the remaining seven contestants will perform routines inspired by movie genres and then go head-to-head in dance-offs. You can already make your predictions for next week here. You get to answer the following questions before each episode airs on ABC every Monday at 5 p.m. PT / 8 p.m. ET.:
Who will win “Dancing with the Stars”?
Who will be eliminated?
Who will get the HIGHEST judges’ score?
Who will get the LOWEST judges’ score?
How many 10s will the judges give out?
Before you make your predictions, make sure to consult the judges’ scores from tonight’s episode, which along with viewer votes will determine who if anyone is sent home next week:
Heather Morris — 40 + 34 = 74 (ELIMINATED)
Normani Kordei — 38 + 34 = 72
Rashad Jennings — 37 + 33 = 70
Simone Biles — 35 + 34 = 69
Nancy Kerrigan — 33 + 34 = 67
Bonner Bolton — 30 + 33 = 63
David Ross — 29 + 33 = 62
Nick Viall — 28 + 33 = 61