With 4/5 odds from our 15 film experts, Emma Stone (“La La Land”) is predicted to win Best Film Actress at Sunday’s Screen Actors Guild Awards. Stone plays Mia, an aspiring actress who falls in love with a jazz pianist (Ryan Gosling), in this LA-based musical from Damien Chazelle. The film has two total nominations including Best Film Actor for Gosling at the 2017 SAG Awards airing live Sunday on TNT and TBS.
Nine of our 15 experts from major media outlets are predicting that Stone will win her first individual SAG Award after two previous ensemble trophies for “The Help” (2011) and “Birdman” (2014). They are: Bonnie Fuller (Hollywood Life), Scott Mantz (Access Hollywood), Jack Mathews (Gold Derby), Michael Musto (Out.com), Tom O’Neil (Gold Derby), Paul Sheehan (Gold Derby), Sasha Stone (Awards Daily), Anne Thompson (Indiewire) and Susan Wloszczyna (RogerEbert.com).
The other six experts are banking on an upset victory for Natalie Portman (“Jackie”), resulting in 8/5 odds to win: Thelma Adams (Gold Derby), Edward Douglas (Weekend Warrior), Joyce Eng (TV Guide), Tariq Khan (Fox News), Peter Travers (Rolling Stone) and Brian Truitt (USA Today). Portman plays First Lady Jackie Kennedy, who fights through grief and trauma in the days following the assassination of her husband, President John F. Kennedy, in Pablo Larrain‘s intimate docudrama. This would be her second Best Actress trophy at the SAG Awards after her victory for “Black Swan” (2010).
Amy Adams (“Arrival”) comes in third place with 50/1 odds to win. Adams plays Dr. Louise Banks, a linguist recruited by the U.S. military to assist in translating alien communications in this sci-fi epic from Denis Villeneuve. She has a previous ensemble SAG trophy for “American Hustle” (2013), though this would be her first individual win.
In fourth place is Meryl Streep (“Florence Foster Jenkins”) with odds of 66/1. Streep plays Florence Foster Jenkins, a New York heiress who dreams of becoming an opera star despite having a terrible singing voice, in this comedy from Stephen Frears. Though she’s won three Oscars from a record 20 nominations, she only has two SAG trophies so far: “Angels in America” (TV miniseries actress in 2003) and “Doubt” (film actress in 2008).
Rounding out the nominees, Emily Blunt (“The Girl on the Train”) has 100/1 odds. Blunt plays Rachel, a divorcee who becomes entangled in a missing person investigation that sends shockwaves through her life in this Tate Taylor-directed thriller. She has no previous SAG nominations.
Stone is also the pick to win if you look at the overall combined racetrack odds derived from the predictions of the Experts, Gold Derby Editors who cover awards year-round, the Top 24 Users who got the top scores predicting last year’s SAG winners, the All-Star Top 24 who got the top scores when you combine the last two years’ ceremonies and the thousands of Users who make up the largest (and often savviest) bloc of predictors. Stone has over 900 combined predictions with 4/5 odds, followed by Portman in second place with 8/5 odds. Adams follows with 40/1 odds, and then Streep at 50/1 and Blunt at 100/1.
Winning this award from the Screen Actors Guild is of great significance when it comes to forecasting the upcoming Oscars. Since the SAG Awards began in 1994, a whopping 16 out of 22 Best Actress SAG winners later prevailed at the Oscars in the same category, including last year’s champ Brie Larson (“Room”). The six exceptions are Jodie Foster (“Nell” in 1994), Annette Bening (“American Beauty” in 1999), Renee Zellweger (“Chicago” in 2002), Julie Christie (“Away From Her” in 2007), Meryl Streep (“Doubt” in 2008) and Viola Davis (“The Help” in 2011).
Make your SAG picks and tell industry insiders which shows, films and performers you have out front to win on January 29. You can keep changing your predictions right up until just before the show time. Be sure to make your predictions right here. You’ll compete for a place of honor on our leaderboard and a starring role in next year’s Top 24 users (the two dozen folks who do the best predicting this year’s nominees). Read our contest rules.