According to Gold Derby’s early 2017 Emmy predictions for Best Drama Actor, Rami Malek (“Mr. Robot”) will take home his second consecutive trophy for playing antisocial tech wiz Elliot. But he’ll need to watch out for rising contender Sterling K. Brown (“This Is Us”), who’s coming off a victory of his own for “The People v. O.J. Simpson” in the supporting race but is now being campaigned in the lead category for his role as family man Randall on NBC’s buzzy drama. See more contenders below and then be sure to make or update your Emmy predictions before the nominations are announced July 13.
Malek leads the Best Drama Actor race for USA’s “Mr. Robot” with overall odds of 3/1, based on Gold Derby’s racetrack odds that combine the predictions of our website Editors who cover awards year-round, the Top 24 Users who did the best at predicting last year’s noms, the All-Star Users who got the highest scores when you combine the last two years’ nominations, and everyday Users like you. Soon, we’ll also feature the predictions of Emmy Experts from major media outlets, but they haven’t piped in quite yet.
In second place is perennial Emmy nominee Kevin Spacey, who has a combined eight losses so far for “House of Cards”: four for Best Drama Actor and four for Best Drama Series as a producer. As the duplicitous President Underwood on the Netflix streaming series, Spacey has 10/3 odds to finally win his first Emmy. Will the fact that the new season debuts May 30, just one day before the Emmy cut-off date, help “House of Cards” and Spacey stay top-of-mind with voters?
“Better Call Saul” star Bob Odenkirk is next in line with 7/2 odds. Odenkirk has two consecutive bids for playing Jimmy McGill/Saul Goodman on the “Breaking Bad” spinoff. Prior to AMC’s “Better Call Saul” Odenkirk was an Emmy champ on the comedy side, sharing in wins for Best Variety Writing: “Saturday Night Live” in 1989 and “The Ben Stiller Show” in 1993. Among our editors, Daniel Montgomery thinks Odenkirk will triumph.
Last year’s surprise nominee Matthew Rhys (“The Americans”) shouldn’t be a shocker this time around as he’s in fourth place with 4/1 odds to win. His show is currently airing its fifth season to rave reviews for FX, so if Emmy voters fall even harder for the Russian spy drama this year we could see a situation where Rhys actually wins. Editor Matt Noble predicts that Rhys will prevail for his role as Philip.
As mentioned above, fifth-place contender Brown is actually a spoiler to win as he has 5/1 odds and the backing of three Editors: Chris Beachum, Marcus James Dixon and Rob Licuria. Amazingly, NBC’s “This Is Us” scene-stealer would be the first African-American nominee in this category since Andre Braugher (“Gideon’s Crossing”) in 2001, and the first to win since Braugher (“Homicide: Life on the Street”) back in 1998.
Liev Schreiber, a past Emmy contender for Best Movie/Mini Actor for “RKO 281” (2000), has earned back-to-back bids as Best Drama Actor for his work as the title character, a Hollywood fixed, on Showtime’s “Ray Donovan.” The program is on the upswing with voters, as it won its first Emmy last year for Best Drama Guest Actor Hank Azaria.
Following those six contenders on our Best Drama Actor chart is Anthony Hopkins (“Westworld”) in seventh place with 6/1 odds, Billy Bob Thornton (“Goliath”) in eighth place with 7/1 odds, Paul Giamatti (“Billions”) in ninth place with 8/1 odds and Matt Smith (“The Crown”) in 10th place with 16/1 odds.
Be sure to make your Emmy predictions. Weigh in now with your picks so that Hollywood insiders can see how their TV shows and performers are faring in our Emmy odds. You can keep changing your predictions until just before nominees are announced on July 13. And join in the fierce debate over the 2017 Emmys taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our TV forums.