According to Gold Derby’s early 2017 Emmy predictions for Best Movie/Mini Actor, HBO is going to have a very good year as either Riz Ahmed or Robert De Niro will win their first trophy from the TV academy. Ahmed stars in the limited series “The Night Of” alongside third-place contender John Turturro, while De Niro leads the upcoming telefilm “The Wizard of Lies.” See more contenders below and then be sure to make or update your Emmy predictions before the nominations are announced July 13.
Ahmed currently has leading 3/1 odds, according to Gold Derby’s racetrack odds that are based on the predictions of our website Editors who cover awards year-round, the Top 24 Users who did the best at predicting last year’s noms, the All-Star Users who got the highest scores when you combine the last two years’ nominations, and everyday Users like you. Soon, we’ll also feature the predictions of Emmy Experts from major media outlets, but they haven’t piped in quite yet.
De Niro, in second place with 10/3 odds, is a two-time Oscar winner for “The Godfather: Part II” (1974) and “Raging Bull” (1980), but he’s avoided television for most of his career and thus has yet to receive an Emmy nom. He plays Bernie Madoff in HBO’s biopic about the disgraced businessman, a role seemingly tailor-made for awards. However, no one has yet seen “The Wizard of Lies,” as it doesn’t air until May 20 near the tail-end of Emmy voting.
Turturro enjoys 7/2 odds for playing a quirky lawyer in HBO’s “The Night Of,” a man who defends Ahmed’s character. He is a prior Emmy winner for “Monk” (2004) in the category of Best Comedy Guest Actor, but this would be his first dramatic nomination. Both Ahmed and Turturro were nominated at the SAG Awards this year but lost to Bryan Cranston (“All the Way”); luckily for them Cranston was eligible at last year’s Emmys.
Fourth place goes to Ewan McGregor (7/2) for the third season of “Fargo.” Television critics are singling out McGregor’s performance(s) as twin brothers Ray Stussy and Emmit Stussy, whose dangerous rivalry will lead to murder in Minnesota. This would be McGregor’s second Emmy nomination after a guest-starring bid for “ER” (1997). Amazingly, no performer from “Fargo” has ever won an Emmy, so might McGregor break that curse?
Never count out “Sherlock” star Benedict Cumberbatch. He won this race in a bit of a jawdropper back in 2014 and has also been nominated for playing the genius crime-solver in 2012 and 2016. Following his last Emmy victory, Cumberbatch went on to earn an Oscar bid for “The Imitation Game” (2014) and starred in the blockbuster “Doctor Strange” (2016), so he may get extra credit points for coming back to TV now that he’s a huge movie star.
Speaking of geniuses, no one is more “Genius” than Geoffrey Rush‘s character of Albert Einstein in the Nat Geo limited series. Like De Niro, Rush is a former Oscar winner — for “Shine” (1996) — which never hurts in these movie/mini Emmy races. The 10-part series debuts on April 25 so fans haven’t seen it yet, but critics are already raving about his impressive performance of the iconic American that we all think we know so well.
Following those six contenders in our Best Movie/Mini Actor rankings are Michael Gambon (“Churchill’s Secret”) in seventh place with 7/1 odds, Laurence Fishburne (“Madiba”) in eighth place with 8/1 odds, Jude Law (“The Young Pope”) in ninth place with 14/1 odds and Timothy Hutton (“American Crime”) in 10th place with 16/1 odds.
Be sure to make your Emmy predictions. Weigh in now with your picks so that Hollywood insiders can see how their TV shows and performers are faring in our Emmy odds. You can keep changing your predictions until just before nominees are announced on July 13. And join in the fierce debate over the 2017 Emmys taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our TV forums.