“Feud: Bette and Joan” is the most nominated limited series at the Emmys this year with 18 bids, and Jessica Lange gives a showy, emotional, and tragic performance as real-life Hollywood icon Joan Crawford. Those should be ingredients for an Emmy frontrunner, but in this year’s race for Best Movie/Mini Actress Nicole Kidman (“Big Little Lies”) has taken a fairly decisive lead. When you combine the predictions of all of the nearly 2,000 users making their picks at Gold Derby, Kidman is way out front with leading odds of 1/2, which translates to a 68% chance of taking home the gold. Compare that to Lange in second place with 4/1 odds, or a 20% chance of winning. But not all of our predictors think this race is so clear-cut.
As of this writing, Kidman is the frontrunner according to 14 out of the 17 Experts we’ve polled from top media outlets. She’s also backed by 18 of our Top 24 Users who got the highest scores predicting the 2016 Emmy winners. And 18 of our All-Star Top 24, who got the highest prediction scores when you combine the last two years’ Emmys, also give the advantage to Kidman for her role as a retired lawyer who is the victim of domestic abuse.
But the Editors who cover awards year-round for Gold Derby think it’s neck-and-neck between the two women. Four of the seven are predicting Kidman: Chris Beachum, Rob Licuria, Paul Sheehan, and myself. But three are forecasting a win for Lange: Marcus James Dixon, Matt Noble, and Tom O’Neil. And perhaps even we are underestimating Lange. After all, this would be Kidman’s first Emmy victory, while Lange has proven to be a darling of the TV academy. Counting her bids this year for acting in and producing “Feud,” Lange has been nominated for nine Emmys, winning three: Best Movie/Mini Actress for “Grey Gardens” (2009) and “American Horror Story: Coven” (2014), and Best Movie/Mini Supporting Actress for “American Horror Story: Murder House” (2012).
What do you think? Is Lange really the frontrunner, or does Kidman have this in the bag?
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