Experts’ Oscar predictions: ‘La La Land’ will win 10 awards; Denzel Washington battles Casey Affleck

After sweeping up five trophies at the BAFTA Awards in London on Sunday, “La La Land” is on track to win 10 Oscars, according to experts’ picks at Gold Derby. Damien Chazelle‘s musical charmer won Best Picture at the BAFTAs the night before final Oscar voting began on Feb. 13. With the backing of 24 of our 25 Oscar experts, it has leading odds of 2/11 to win Best Picture at the Oscars on Feb. 26.

The experts also predict that “La La Land” — which reaped a record-tying 14 Oscar nominations — will snag the marquee categories of Best Director (Damien Chazelle) and Actress (Emma Stone) as well as cinematography, costume design, film editing, production design, score, song and sound mixing. That haul will tie it with another tuner, “West Side Story,” which went 10 for 11 in 1961. Three films –“Ben-Hur” (1959), “Titanic” (1997) and “Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King” (2003) — each claimed a record 11 Oscars.

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The experts are sharply divided over Best Actor with 13 of them siding with SAG Awards champ Denzel Washington (“Fences”) while 12 favor BAFTA winner Casey Affleck (“Manchester by the Sea”). That one-vote edge gives Washington, who was snubbed by the BAFTAs, odds of 1/1 to win his third Oscar while Affleck is a hair behind at 6/5.

The baker’s dozen of experts backing Washington are: Eric Deggans (NPR), Bonnie Fuller (Hollywood Life), Tim Gray (Variety), Tariq Khan (Fox News), Kevin Polowy (Yahoo!), Christopher Rosen (Entertainment Weekly), Nicole Sperling (Entertainment Weekly), Sasha Stone (Awards Daily), Adnan Virk (ESPN), Susan Wloszczyna (RogetEbert.com) and Gold Derby’s Thelma Adams, Tom O’Neil and Paul Sheehan.

Oscars: Every Best Actor Winner in Academy History (Photo Gallery)

And the 12 in Affleck’s corner are: Matt Atchity (Rotten Tomatoes), Erik Davis (Fandango), Edward Douglas (Weekend Warrior),  Joyce Eng (TV Guide),  Matthew Jacobs (Huffington Post), Scott Mantz (Access Hollywood), Michael Musto (Out.com), Keith Simanton (IMDB), Anne Thompson (Indiewire), Peter Travers (Rolling Stone), Brian Truitt (USA Today) and Gold Derby’s Jack Mathews.

Even if Washington loses, his co-star Viola Davis is all but certain to win Best Supporting Actress. This Emmy and Tony champ has the votes of all 25 of our experts, which translate into overwhelming odds of 1/10. Far back in second place is three-time Oscar also-ran Michelle Williams (“Manchester by the Sea”) with odds of 33/1.

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Likewise, if Affleck is defeated, his film’s director Kenneth Lonergan is tipped to take home an Oscar for his original screenplay. This playwright turned filmmaker is ahead of Chazelle who did double duty as well by a margin of 17 to 8 among the experts.

Moonlight,” which was shut out of the BAFTAs, is heavily favored by our experts to claim two Oscars: Best Supporting Actor for Mahershala Ali (who lost to Dev Patel, the British-born star of “Lion,” at the BAFTAs) and Adapted Screenplay for director Barry Jenkins and playwright Tarell Alvin McCraney.

UPDATED: Oscar odds in all 24 categories 

Below are the experts’ odds in the top eight Oscar categories. See more.

BEST PICTURE
“La La Land” – 2/11
“Moonlight” – 16/1
“Hidden Figures” – 50/1
“Manchester by the Sea” – 50/1
“Arrival” – 66/1
“Lion” – 66/1
“Hacksaw Ridge” – 80/1
“Fences” – 80/1
“Hell or High Water” – 100/1

BEST DIRECTOR
Damien Chazelle, “La La Land” – 2/9
Barry Jenkins, “Moonlight” – 13/2
Kenneth Lonergan, “Manchester by the Sea” – 50/1
Denis Villeneuve,  “Arrival” – 66/1
Mel Gibson, “Hacksaw Ridge” – 80/1

BEST ACTOR
Denzel Washington, “Fences” – 1/1
Casey Affleck, “Manchester by the Sea” – 6/5
Ryan Gosling, “La La Land” – 50/1
Andrew Garfield, “Hacksaw Ridge” – 66/1
Viggo Mortensen, “Captain Fantastic” – 80/1

BEST ACTRESS
Emma Stone, “La La Land” – 1/3
Isabelle Huppert, “Elle” – 13/2
Natalie Portman, “Jackie” – 10/1
Meryl Streep, “Florence Foster Jenkins” – 66/1
Ruth Negga, “Loving” – 80/1

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BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Mahershala Ali, “Moonlight” – 2/9
Jeff Bridges, “Hell or High Water” – 16/1
Dev Patel, “Lion” – 16/1
Michael Shannon, “Nocturnal Animals” – 18/1
Lucas Hedges, “Manchester by the Sea” – 66/1

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Viola Davis, “Fences” – 1/10
Michelle Williams, “Manchester by the Sea” – 33/1
Naomie Harris, “Moonlight” – 50/1
Octavia Spencer, “Hidden Figures” – 66/1
Nicole Kidman, “Lion” – 80/1

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
“Moonlight” – 2/13
“Arrival” – 16/1
“Hidden Figures” – 50/1
“Fences” – 50/1
“Lion” – 66/1

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
“Manchester by the Sea” – 4/7
“La La Land” – 11/5
“Hell or High Water” – 50/1
“The Lobster” – 66/1
“20th Century Women” – 66/1

Predict the Oscar winners now; change them till February 26

Be sure to make your Oscar predictions. Weigh in now with your picks so that Hollywood insiders can see how their films are faring in our Oscar odds. You can keep changing your predictions right up until just before winners are announced on February 26 at 5:00 pm PT/8:00 pm ET. And join in the fierce debate over the Oscars taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our forums.

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