Experts’ Oscar predictions: 10 wins for ‘La La Land’ listed in order of likelihood

La La Land” earned 14 Oscar nominations, tying the record of “All About Eve” (1950) and “Titanic” (1997). And with two bids for Best Song, it has the potential to win a lucky 13 Academy Awards. According to the 24 experts drawn from major media making their predictions here at Gold Derby, it will end Oscar night with 10 trophies, leaving it tied for second on the all-time winners list with “West Side Story” (1961). Three films — “Ben-Hur” (1959), “Titanic” (1997) and “Lord of the Rings; The Return of the King” (2003) — have each claimed a record 11 Oscars.

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Below, we break down the wins for “La La Land” by likelihood, noting its fiercest rival in each category. And we reveal which films are ahead to win in the other three races in which it contends.

Our two dozen Oscar experts are: Thelma Adams (Gold Derby), Matt Atchity (Rotten Tomatoes), Erik Davis (Fandango), Eric Deggans (NPR), Edward Douglas (Weekend Warrior),  Joyce Eng (TV Guide), Bonnie Fuller (Hollywood Life), Tim Gray (Variety), Matthew Jacobs (Huffington Post), Tariq Khan (Fox News), Jack Mathews (Gold Derby), Michael Musto (Out.com), Tom O’Neil (Gold Derby), Kevin Polowy (Yahoo!), Christopher Rosen (Entertainment Weekly), Paul Sheehan (Gold Derby), Keith Simanton (IMDB), Nicole Sperling (Entertainment Weekly), Sasha Stone (Awards Daily), Anne Thompson (Indiewire), Peter Travers (Rolling Stone), Brian Truitt (USA Today), Adnan Virk (ESPN) and Susan Wloszczyna (RogetEbert.com).

Ten of us – Thelma Adams (Gold Derby), Erik Davis (Fandango), Edward Douglas (Weekend Warrior), Joyce Eng (TV Guide), Bonnie Fuller (Hollywood Life), Michael Musto (Out.com), Tom O’Neil (Gold Derby), Peter Travers (Rolling Stone), Adnan Virk (ESPN) and myself — are forecasting wins for “La La Land” in all 10 of these races. Each of the other 14 expects an upset in at least one category.

UPDATED: Oscar Experts predict winners in all 24 categories

BEST PICTURE (23 experts: odds of 1/5)
The sole outlier is Matt Atchity (Rotten Tomatoes) who is predicting an upset by “Moonlight,” which has odds of 16/1.

BEST SCORE (23 experts: odds of 2/1)
Nicole Sperling (Entertainment Weekly) forecasts an upset by “Moonlight,” which has odds of 14/1.

BEST FILM EDITING (22 experts: odds of 2/11)
Jack Mathews (Gold Derby) favors “Hacksaw Ridge” while Tariq Khan (Fox News) expects a win for “Arrival”; both have odds of 14/1.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY (21 experts: odds of 2/9)
Three experts — Eric Deggans (NPR), Kevin Polowy (Yahoo!),  Nicole Sperling (Entertainment Weekly) — are going with “Arrival,” which has odds of 13/2.

BEST DIRECTOR: Damien Chazelle (20 experts: odds of 2/7)
Four experts — Atchity, Kevin Polowy (Yahoo!), Keith Simanton (IMDB), Brian Truitt (USA Today) –favor Barry Jenkins (“Moonlight”) giving him odds of 9/2.

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BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN (20 experts: odds of 2/7)
Four experts — Tim Gray (Variety), Sasha Stone (Awards Daily), Anne Thompson (Indiewire) and  Susan Wloszczyna (RogetEbert.com) — are predicting a win for “Arrival,” which has odds of 9/2.

BEST SOUND MIXING (20 experts: odds of 2/7)
Four experts — Eric Deggans (NPR), Tim Gray (Variety), Matthew Jacobs (Huffinton Post) and Kevin Polowy (Yahoo!) — expect an upset by “Hacksaw Ridge,” which has odds of 9/2.

BEST ACTRESS: Emma Stone (18 experts: odds of 4/9)
The other half dozen experts are split between Natalie Portman (“Jackie”) and Isabelle Huppert (“Elle”) who both have odds of 13/2.

BEST SONG: “City of Stars” (18 experts: odds of 4/9)
The other six are split with four favoring “How Far I’ll Go” from “Moana” (9/2) while one apiece predict a win for “Audition” (“The Fools Who Dream”) from “La La Land” (16/1) or “Can’t Stop the Feeling” from “Trolls”  (18/1).

BEST COSTUME DESIGN (17 experts: odds of 1/2)
Five experts favor “Jackie” (7/2) while one apiece opt for “Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them” and “Florence Foster Jenkins,” which are at 16/1.

Oscars: Musicals That Won Best Picture

To tie the record of 11 Oscars, “La La Land” will also have to win one of these three races; two victories would give it sole bragging rights.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY (11 experts: odds of 5/4)
While Chazelle has the votes of 11 experts, 13 are predicting a win for playwright Kenneth Lonergan for his script of “Manchester by the Sea.” That support gives this writer/director leading odds of 10/11.

BEST SOUND EDITING (7 experts: odds of 5/2)
Although seven experts are predicting that “La La Land” will win this award as well as sound mixing, 15 foresee a win for the war drama “Hacksaw Ridge,” giving it overwhelming odds of 8/11. The other two expect “Arrival” (9/1) to pull off an upset.

BEST ACTOR: Ryan Gosling (0 experts: odds of 50/1)
Our experts are divided down the middle, with 12 each favoring Casey Affleck (“Manchester by the Sea”) and Denzel Washington (“Fences”).

Predict the Oscar winners now; change them till February 26

Be sure to make your Oscar predictions. Weigh in now with your picks so that Hollywood insiders can see how their films are faring in our Oscar odds. You can keep changing your predictions right up until just before winners are announced on February 26 at 5:00 pm PT/8:00 pm ET. And join in the fierce debate over the Oscars taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our forums.

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