Experts’ Oscar predictions as nominations voting ends: ‘La La Land’ will win 9

As Oscar nominations voting ends on Jan. 13, “La La Land” remains far ahead in the Oscar race for Best Picture according to the 28 experts drawn from major media making their predictions here at Gold Derby. The vast majority (25 and counting) are backing this buoyant musical romance to win, giving it leading odds of 9/2. “La La Land” and the character study “Moonlight” have split the major critics awards and the latter could pull off an upset if academy voters want to honor more serious fare.

“La La Land” is in the running for 11 of the 12 guild awards to date, having reaped bids with the producers, directors, actors, writers, art directors, casting directors, cinematographers, costumers, film editors, makeup artists & hair stylists, and sound mixers. It missed out only with the visual effects wizards (The sound editors don’t chime in till the end of the month.) By comparison, “Moonlight” was cited by seven guilds. Among other rivals, the sci-fi flick “Arrival” and the domestic drama “Manchester by the Sea” reaped nominations with eight guilds each.

Related Photo Gallery: Top 15 Best Picture Oscar Contenders

“La La Land” is predicted to earn 14 Oscar nominations, tying the record of “All About Eve” (1950) and “Titanic” (1997). Among these will be dual bids for writer/director Damien Chazelle. He is tipped to become the youngest-ever winner of Best Director at age 32 years, and 38 days; Norman Taurog was 32 years and 267 days when he won this award in 1931 for “Skippy.” His hit film, which set a Golden Globes record with seven wins, is on track to claim nine Oscars in all, including actress (Emma Stone), cinematography, film editing, production design, score, song and sound mixing. That haul would would tie it for third on the all-time list with “Gigi” (1958), “The Last Emperor” (1987) and “The English Patient” (1996). Another tuner, “West Side Story,” went 10 for 11 in 1961 while three films — “Ben-Hur” (1959), “Titanic” (1997) and “Lord of the Rings; The Return of the King” (2003) — have each claimed a record 11 Oscars.

“Manchester by the Sea,” which debuted to rave reviews at Sundance in January, led when we launched our prediction center in August and still has the backing of three experts. Reminiscent of 1980 Best Picture champ “Ordinary People,” this New York Film Critics Circle winner is now in second place with odds of 13/2. Kenneth Lonergan will reap bids for both writing and directing and is favored to win for his original screenplay. Casey Affleck is out front in Best Actor for his work as a grieving brother forced to care for his orphaned nephew (newcomer Lucas Hedges who is sure to contend in supporting) and come to terms with his ex-wife (Michelle Williams in a small but pivotal role).

“Moonlight,” which won Best Drama at the Globes, has likely winners in Supporting Actor (Mahershala Ali) and Adapted Screenplay (Barry Jenkins). Jenkins will also earn a nomination for directing as will supporting actress Naomie Harris, lenser James Laxton and composer Nicholas Britell.

Below, our exclusive odds based on the predictions by our experts, including notations of movement over the past week in each category. Be sure to check out individual experts Oscar predictions and the full breakdown of contenders in each category. And then make your own predictions  so that Hollywood insiders can see how your favorites are faring in our Oscar odds.

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BEST PICTURE
1. “La La Land” – 9/2
2. “Manchester by the Sea” – 13/2
3. “Moonlight” – 7/1
4. “Fences” – 10/1 (down from 9/1)
5. “Arrival ” – 11/1 (up from 12/1)
6. “Lion” – 12/1  (up from 14/1)
7. “Hacksaw Ridge” – 14/1
8. “Hell or High Water” – 14/1 (up from 16/1)
9.”Hidden Figures” – 16/1 (up from 22/1)
10. “Silence” – 28/1 (down from 22/1)

Possibilities
11. “Jackie” – 33/1 (down from 28/1)
12. “Loving” – 50/1 (down from 33/1)
13. “Sully” – 100/1 (down from 66/1)
14. “Patriot’s Day” – 100/1
15. “Captain Fantastic” – 100/1

BEST DIRECTOR
1. Damien Chazelle, “La La Land” – 7/4 (up from 9/5)
2. Kenneth Lonergan, “Manchester by the Sea” – 4/1
3. Barry Jenkins, “Moonlight” – 4/1
4.Denis Villeneuve, “Arrival” – 12/1 (up from 18/1)
5. Martin Scorsese, “Silence” – 18/1 (down from 12/1)

Possibilities
6. Denzel Washington, “Fences” – 25/1 (down from 14/1)
7. Mel Gibson, “Hacksaw Ridge” – 50/1 (up from 66/1)
8. David Mackenize, “Hell or High Water” – 66/1 (up from 80/1)
9. Garth Davis, “Lion” – 80/1 (up from 100/1)
8. Jeff Nichols, “Loving” – 100/1

BEST ACTOR
1. Casey Affleck, “Manchester by the Sea” – 9/5
2. Denzel Washington, “Fences” – 10/3 (down from 3/1)
3. Ryan Gosling, “La La Land” – 11/2 (up from 6/1)
4. Andrew Garfield, “Hacksaw Ridge” – 9/1
5.Viggo Mortensen, “Captain Fantastic” – 12/1 (up from 14/1)

Possibilities
7. Tom Hanks, “Sully” – 33/1 (down from 22/1)
8. Joel Edgerton, “Loving” – 50/1 (down from 33/1)
8. Michael Keaton, “The Founder” – 100/1
9. Jake Gyllenhaal, “Nocturnal Animals” – 100/1
10. Matthew McConaughey, “Gold” – 100/1

BEST ACTRESS
1. Emma Stone, “La La Land” – 9/4 (up from 12/5)
2. Natalie Portman, “Jackie” – 13/5 (down from 5/2)
3. Isabelle Huppert, “Elle” – 8/1 (up from 9/1)
4. Amy Adams, “Arrival” – 9/1
5. Annette Bening, “20th Century Women” – 10/1 (down from 9/1)

Possibilities
6. Ruth Negga, “Loving” – 16/1 (down from 12/1)
7. Meryl Streep, “Florence Foster Jenkins” – 22/1 (up from 33/1)
8. Taraji P. Henson, “Hidden Figures” – 80/1 (down from 66/1)
9. Sally Field, “My Name is Doris” – 100/1
10. Kate Beckinsale, “Love and Friendship” – 100/1

Find out what will win at the Oscars this year

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR 
1. Mahershala Ali, “Moonlight” – 15/8
2. Lucas Hedges, “Manchester by the Sea” – 9/2
2. Jeff Bridges, “Hell or High Water” – 9/2 (up from 5/1)
4. Dev Patel, “Lion” – 13/2 (up from 7/1)
5. Hugh Grant, “Florence Foster Jenkins” – 14/1

Possibilities
6. Michael Shannon, “Nocturnal Animals” – 16/1
7. Issei Ogata, “Silence” – 50/1
8. Liam Neeson, “Silence” – 80/1
9. Kevin Costner, “Hidden Figures” – 80/1
10. Ben Foster, “Hell or High Water” – 100/1

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1. Viola Davis, “Fences” – 8/5 (up from 13/8)
2. Michelle Williams, “Manchester by the Sea” – 4/1
3. Naomie Harris, “Moonlight” – 5/1
4. Nicole Kidman, “Lion” – 15/2
5. Octavia Spencer, “Hidden Figures” – 9/1 (up from 10/1)

Possibilities
6. Greta Gerwig, “20th Century Women” – 50/1
7. Janelle Monae, “Hidden Figures” – 66/1
8. Felicity Jones, “A Monster Calls” – 100/1
9. Margo Martindale, “The Hollars” – 100/1
10. Amy Adams, “Nocturnal Animals” – 100/1

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1. “Moonlight” – 21/10 (up from 11/5)
2. “Fences” – 4/1 (down from 7/2)
3. “Arrival” – 5/1
4. “Lion ” – 8/1 (up from 9/1)
5. “Nocturnal Animals” – 12/1 (up from 16/1)

Possibilities
6. “Hidden Figures” – 20/1 (down from 18/1)
7. “Silence” – 33/1 (down from 22/1)
8. “A Monster Calls” – 80/1
9. “Love and Friendship” – 80/1
10. “Hacksaw Ridge” – 100/1

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1. “Manchester by the Sea” – 8/5 (down from 3/2)
2. “La La Land” – 7/2 (up from 4/1)
3. “Hell or High Water” – 5/1 (up from 11/2)
4. “Jackie” – 9/1
5. “The Lobster” – 16/1 (up from 18/1)

Possibilities
6. “Captain Fantastic” – 22/1 (up from 33/1)
7. “20th Century Women” – 40/1 (down from 33/1)
8. “Zootopia” – 100/1
9. “Cafe Society” – 100/1
10. “Florence Foster Jenkins” – 100/1

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BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
1. “La La Land” – 15/8
2. “Silence” – 5/1
3. “Arrival” – 5/1 (up from 11/2)
4. “Moonlight” – 11/2
5. “Jackie” – 10/1 (down from 9/1)

Possibilities
6. “Hacksaw Ridge” – 40/1 (up from 50/1)
7. “Nocturnal Animals” – 80/1
8. “Live By Night” – 100/1
10. “Hail, Caeasar” – 100/1
11. “Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them” – 100/1

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
1. “Jackie” – 2/1 (down from 19/10)
2. “La La Land” – 10/3 (up from 7/2)
2. “Florence Foster Jenkins” – 13/2
4. “Silence” – 10/1 (down from 9/1)
5. “Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them” – 10/1 (up from 12/1)

Possibilities
6. “Allied” – 20/1
7. “Live By Night” – 50/1
8. “Love and Friendship” – 66/1
9. “Hidden Figures” – 66/1
10. “Captain Fantastic” – 100/1

BEST FILM EDITING
1. “La La Land” – 9/5 (down from 17/10)
2. “Moonlight” – 11/2 (up from 6/1)
3. “Hacksaw Ridge” – 7/1 (up from 9/1)
5. “Arrival” – 9/1 (up from 14/1)
3. “Jackie” – 12/1 (down from 9/1)

Possibilities
6. “Silence” – 14/1 (down from 12/1)
7. “Manchester by the Sea” – 18/1 (up from 25/1)
8. “Sully” – 40/1 (down from 33/1)
9. “The Jungle Book” – 40/1
10. “Hell or High Water” – 66/1

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
1.”Florence Foster Jenkins” – 7/4 (up from 9/5)
2. “Deadpool” – 7/2 (up from 6/1)
3. “Star Trek Beyond” – 13/2

Possibilities
4. “Hail, Caesar” – 25/1 (down from 20/1)

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
1. “La La Land” – 15/8 (up from 19/10)
3. “Jackie” – 11/2 (up from 6/1)
3. -“Silence” – 13/2 (down from 6/1)
4. “Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them” – 7/1
5. “Arrival” – 16/1 (up from 28/1)

Possibilities
6. “The Jungle Book” – 18/1
7. “Rogue One: A Star Wars Story” – 22/1
8. “Live By Night” – 40/1 (down from 25/1)
9. “Fences” – 80/1
10. “Hacksaw Ridge” – 80/1

BEST SCORE
1. “La La Land” – 3/2 (up from 8/5)
2. “Jackie” – 13/2 (down from 11/2)
3. “Moonlight”- 7/1 (up from 15/2)
4. “Lion” – 10/1 (up from 11/1)
5. “Rogue One: A Star Wars Story” – 11/1 (up from 12/1)

Possibilities
6. “The Jungle Book” – 28/1 (up from 33/1)
7. “Nocturnal Animals” 50/1 (down from 40/1)
8. “Florence Foster Jenkins – 50/1 (up from 80/1)
8. “Hacksaw Ridge” – 100/1 (down from 66/1)
10. “Hidden Figures” – 100/1

BEST SONG
1. “City of Stars” from “La La Land” – 13/8 (up from 9/5 )
2. “How Far I’ll Go” from “Moana” – 4/1
3. “Audition” from “La La Land” – 7/1 (down from 11/2)
4. “Can’t Stop the Feeling” from “Trolls”- 7/1 (up from 15/2)
5. “Runnin” from “Hidden Figures” – 18/1 (up from 20/1)
5. “Try Everything” from “Zootopia” – 18/1 (up from 20/1)

Possibilities
7. “Drive It Like You Stole It” from “Sing Street” – 33/1 (down from 28/1)
8. “Faith” from “Sing” – 66/1 (up from 80/1)
9. “Gold” from “Gold” – 100/1
10. “I See a Victory” from “Hidden Figures” – 100/1

BEST SOUND EDITING
1. “Hacksaw Ridge” – 21/10 (down from 2/1)
2. “La La Land” – 9/2
3. “Rogue One: A Star Wars Story” – 5/1 (up from 11/2)
4. “Arrival” – 9/1 (up from 10/1)
5. “Silence” – 10/1 (down from 9/1)

Possibilities
6. “The Jungle Book” – 12/1 (up from 14/1)
7. “Deepwater Horizon” – 33/1 (up from 40/1)
8. “Sully”- 50/1
9. “Doctor Strange” – 100/1
10. “Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them”- 100/1

BEST SOUND MIXING
1. “La La Land” – 17/10 (up from 7/4)
2. “Hacksaw Ridge” – 4/1
3. “Rogue One: A Star Wars Story” – 11/2
4. “Arrival” – 9/1 (up from 12/1)
5. “Silence” – 14/1 (down from 11/1)

Possibilities
6. “The Jungle Book” – 16/1 (down from 14/1)
7. “Sully” – 40/1
8. “Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them” – 80/1
9. “Deepwater Horizon” – 80/1
10. “Passengers” – 100/1

BEST  VISUAL EFFECTS
1. “The Jungle Book” – 2/1 (up from 21/10)
2. “Doctor Strange” – 4/1
3. “Rogue One: A Star Wars Story” – 4/1
4. “Arrival” – 7/1
5. “Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them” – 8/1

Possibilities
6. “Captain America: Civil War” – 50/1
7. “The BFG” – 100/1
8. “Passengers” – 100/1
9. “Deepwater Horizon” – 100/1
10. “Kubo and the Two Strings”- 100/1

Predict the Oscar nominations now; change them till January 24

Be sure to make your Oscar predictions. How do you think “La La Land” will do with academy voters? Weigh in now with your picks so that Hollywood insiders can see how this film is faring in our Oscar odds. You can keep changing your predictions right up until just before nominations are announced on January 24 at 5:00 am PT/8:00 am ET. Be sure to read our contest rules. And join in the fierce debate over the Oscars taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our forums.

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