Experts’ Oscar predictions as nominations voting opens: ‘La La Land’ will win 9

As academy members start casting their nomination ballots on Jan. 5, “La La Land” remains far ahead in the Oscar race for Best Picture according to the 28 experts drawn from major media making their predictions here at Gold Derby. The vast majority (23 and counting) are backing this buoyant musical romance to win, giving it leading odds of 9/2. “La La Land” and the character study “Moonlight” have split the major critics awards and the latter could pull off an upset if academy voters want to honor more serious fare.

“La La Land” and the domestic drama “Manchester by the Sea” number among the four films that have earned nominations from all five of the industry precursor awards heard from so far: the actors, writers, art directors and film editors guilds as well as the casting directors society; the others that have run the board are “Arrival” and “Hell or High Water.” “Moonlight” has reaped bids from all groups save the art directors.

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“La La Land” is predicted to have the most Oscar nominations (14), including dual bids for writer/director Damien Chazelle. He is tipped to become the youngest-ever winner of Best Director at age 32 years, and 38 days; Norman Taurog was 32 years and 267 days when he won this award in 1931 for “Skippy.” His hit film is on track to claim nine Oscars in all, including actress (Emma Stone), cinematography, film editing, production design, score, song and sound mixing.

“Manchester by the Sea,” which debuted to rave reviews at Sundance in January, led when we launched our prediction center in August and still has the backing of five experts. Reminiscent of 1980 Best Picture winner “Ordinary People,” this domestic drama, which won Best Picture from the New York Film Critics Circle, is now in second place with odds of 13/2. Kenneth Lonergan will reap bids for both writing and directing and is favored to win for his original screenplay. Casey Affleck is out front in Best Actor for his work as a grieving brother forced to care for his orphaned nephew (newcomer Lucas Hedges who is sure to contend in supporting) and come to terms with his ex-wife (Michelle Williams in a small but pivotal role).

“Moonlight” swept the Los Angeles critics awards with wins for Picture, Director (Barry Jenkins), Supporting Actor (Mahershala Ali) and Cinematography. Ali is ahead at the Oscars as is Jenkins for his adapted screenplay. Look for supporting actress Naomie Harris, lenser James Laxton and composer Nicholas Britell to earn nominations.

Below, our exclusive odds based on the predictions by our experts, including notations of movement over the past week in each category. Be sure to check out individual experts Oscar predictions and the full breakdown of contenders in each category. And then make your own predictions  so that Hollywood insiders can see how your favorites are faring in our Oscar odds.

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BEST PICTURE
1. “La La Land” – 9/2
2. “Manchester by the Sea” – 13/2
3. “Moonlight” – 7/1
4. “Fences” – 9/1
5. “Arrival ” – 12/1
6. “Lion” – 14/1  (down from 12/1)
7. “Hacksaw Ridge” – 14/1 (up from 16/1)
8. “Hell or High Water” – 16/1
9.”Hidden Figures” – 22/1
10. “Silence” – 22/1

Possibilities
11. “Jackie” – 28/1
12. “Loving” – 33/1 (down from 28/1)
13. “Sully” – 50/1 (up from 66/1)
14. “Patriot’s Day” – 100/1
15. “20th Century Women” – 100/1
16. “Captain Fantastic” – 100/1

BEST DIRECTOR
1. Damien Chazelle, “La La Land” -9/5 (down from 7/4)
2. Kenneth Lonergan, “Manchester by the Sea” – 4/1
3. Barry Jenkins, “Moonlight” – 4/1
4. Martin Scorsese, “Silence” – 12/1
5. Denzel Washington, “Fences” – 14/1 (down from 12/1

Possibilities
6. Denis Villeneuve, “Arrival” – 18/1 (up from 20/1)
7. Mel Gibson, “Hacksaw Ridge” – 66/1 (up from 100/1)
8. Jeff Nichols, “Loving” – 100/1
9. David Mackenize, “Hell or High Water” – 100/1 (down from 80/1)
10. Pablo Larrain, “Jackie” – 100/1

BEST ACTOR
1. Casey Affleck, “Manchester by the Sea” – 9/5 (up from 15/8)
2. Denzel Washington, “Fences” – 3/1
3. Ryan Gosling, “La La Land” – 6/1
4. Andrew Garfield, “Hacksaw Ridge” – 9/1 (up from 10/1)
5.Viggo Mortensen, “Captain Fantastic” – 16/1 (down from 14/1)

Possibilities
7. Tom Hanks, “Sully” – 22/1 (down from 20/1)
8. Joel Edgerton, “Loving” – 25/1
8. Michael Keaton, “The Founder” – 100/1
9. Andrew Garfield, “Silence” – 100/1
10. Matthew McConaughey, “Gold” – 100/1

BEST ACTRESS
1. Emma Stone, “La La Land” – 12/5 (down from 23/10)
2. Natalie Portman, “Jackie” – 5/2 (up from 13/5)
3. Amy Adams, “Arrival” – 9/1
3. Isabelle Huppert, “Elle” – 9/1
5. Annette Bening, “20th Century Women” – 9/1 (up from 10/1)

Possibilities
6. Ruth Negga, “Loving” – 12/1 (down from 11/1)
7. Meryl Streep, “Florence Foster Jenkins” – 33/1 (down from 28/1)
8. Taraji P. Henson, “Hidden Figures” – 66/1 (up from 80/1)
9. Sally Field, “My Name is Doris” – 100/1
10. Kate Beckinsale, “Love and Friendship” – 100/1

Find out what will win at the Oscars this year

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR 
1. Mahershala Ali, “Moonlight” – 15/8 (down from 9/5)
2. Lucas Hedges, “Manchester by the Sea” – 9/2 (up from 5/1)
2. Jeff Bridges, “Hell or High Water” – 5/1
4. Dev Patel, “Lion” – 7/1 (down from 13/2)
5. Hugh Grant, “Florence Foster Jenkins” – 14/1

Possibilities
6. Michael Shannon, “Nocturnal Animals” – 16/1
7. Issei Ogata, “Silence” – 50/1
8. Liam Neeson, “Silence” – 80/1
9. Kevin Costner, “Hidden Figures” – 80/1
10. Ben Foster, “Hell or High Water” – 100/1

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1. Viola Davis, “Fences” – 13/8
2. Michelle Williams, “Manchester by the Sea” – 4/1
3. Naomie Harris, “Moonlight” – 5/1
4. Nicole Kidman, “Lion” – 15/2
5. Octavia Spencer, “Hidden Figures” – 10/1

Possibilities
6. Greta Gerwig, “20th Century Women” – 50/1 (down from 40/1)
7. Janelle Monae, “Hidden Figures” – 66/1
8. Felicity Jones, “A Monster Calls” – 100/1
9. Margo Martindale, “The Hollars” – 100/1
10. Amy Adams, “Nocturnal Animals” – 100/1

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1. “Moonlight” – 11/5 (up from 13/5)
2. “Fences” – 7/2 (down from 10/3)
3. “Arrival” – 5/1 (down from 9/s)
4. “Lion ” – 9/1
5. “Nocturnal Animals” – 16/1 (down from 14/1)

Possibilities
6. “Hidden Figures” – 18/1 (up from 25/1
7. “Silence” – 22/1 (down from 20/1)
8. “A Monster Calls” – 80/1
9. “Love and Friendship” – 80/1 (down from 50/1)
10. “Hacksaw Ridge” – 100/1 (down from 66/1)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1. “Manchester by the Sea” – 3/2
2. “La La Land” – 4/1
3. “Hell or High Water” – 11/2
4. “Jackie” – 9/1
5. “The Lobster” – 18/1 (up from 20/1)

Possibilities
5. “20th Century Women” – 33/1 (down from 28/1)
7. “Captain Fantastic” – 33/1 (up from 40/1)
8. “Zootopia” – 100/1
9. “Cafe Society” – 100/1
10. “Florence Foster Jenkins” – 100/1

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BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
1. “La La Land” – 15/8
2. “Silence” – 5/1
3. “Arrival” – 11/2
4. “Moonlight” – 11/2
5. “Jackie” – 9/1

Possibilities
6. “Hacksaw Ridge” – 50/1
7. “Nocturnal Animals” – 80/1
8. “Live By Night” – 100/1
10. “Hail, Caeasar” – 100/1
11. “Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them” – 100/1

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
1. “Jackie” – 19/10
2. “La La Land” – 7/2
2. “Florence Foster Jenkins” – 13/2
4. “Silence” – 9/1
5. “Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them” – 12/1 (down from 11/1)

Possibilities
6. “Allied” – 20/1
7. “Live By Night” – 50/1
8. “Love and Friendship” – 66/1 (down from 50/1)
9. “Hidden Figures” – 66/1
10. “Captain Fantastic” – 100/1

BEST FILM EDITING
1. “La La Land” – 17/10 (up from 9/5)
2. “Moonlight” – 6/1 (down from 12/2)
3. “Jackie” – 9/1
4. “Hacksaw Ridge” – 9/1
5. “Silence” – 12/1 (down from 12/1)

Possibilities
6. “Arrival” – 14/1 (up from 16/1)
7. “Manchester by the Sea” – 25/1 (up from 28/1)
8. “Sully” – 33/1
9. “The Jungle Book” – 40/1
10. “Hell or High Water” – 66/1

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
1.”Florence Foster Jenkins” – 9/5 (up from 23/10)
2. “Deadpool” – 6/1 (up from 9/1)
3. “Star Trek Beyond” – 13/2 (down from 6/1)

Possibilities
4. “Hail, Caesar” – 20/1

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
1. “La La Land” – 19/10 (down from 15/8)
3. “Silence” – 11/2 (up from 6/1)
3. “Jackie” – 6/1
4. “Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them” – 7/1
5. “The Jungle Book” – 18/1

Possibilities
6. “Rogue One: A Star Wars Story” – 22/1
7. “Live By Night” – 25/1 (up from 28/1)
8. “Arrival” – 28/1
9. “Fences” – 80/1
10. “Hacksaw Ridge” – 80/1

BEST SCORE
1. “La La Land” – 8/5
2. “Jackie” – 11/2
3. “Moonlight”- 15/2 (up from 8/1)
4. “Lion” – 11/1
5. “Rogue One: A Star Wars Story” – 12/1

Possibilities
6. “The Jungle Book” – 33/1
7. “Nocturnal Animals” 40/1 (up from 50/1)
8. “Hacksaw Ridge” – 66/1
8. “Florence Foster Jenkins – 80/1 (down from 40/1)
10. “Hidden Figures” – 80/1 (down from 66/1)

BEST SONG
1. “City of Stars” from “La La Land” – 9/5 (up from 19/10)
2. “How Far I’ll Go” from “Moana” -4/1 (down from  7/2)
3. “Audition” from “La La Land” – 11/2
4. “Can’t Stop the Feeling” from “Trolls”- 15/2
5. “Runnin” from “Hidden Figures” – 20/1
5. “Try Everything” from “Zootopia” – 20/1

Possibilities
7. “Drive It Like You Stole It” from “Sing Street” – 28/1 (up from 33/1)
8. “Faith” from “Sing” – 80/1
9. “Gold” from “Gold” – 100/1
10. “I See a Victory” from “Hidden Figures” – 100/1

BEST SOUND EDITING
1. “Hacksaw Ridge” – 2/1
2. “La La Land” – 9/2
3. “Rogue One: A Star Wars Story” – 11/2
4. “Silence” – 9/1
5. “Arrival” – 10/1

Possibilities
6. “The Jungle Book” – 14/1
7. “Deepwater Horizon” – 40/1
8. “Sully”- 50/1
9. “Doctor Strange” – 100/1
10. “Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them”- 100/1

BEST SOUND MIXING
1. “La La Land” – 7/4
2. “Hacksaw Ridge” – 4/1
3. “Rogue One: A Star Wars Story” – 11/2
4. “Silence” – 11/1
5. “Arrival” – 12/1

Possibilities
6. “The Jungle Book” – 14/1
7. “Sully” – 40/1
8. “Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them” – 80/1 (down from 50/1)
9. “Deepwater Horizon” – 80/1
10. “Passengers” – 100/1

BEST  VISUAL EFFECTS
1. “The Jungle Book” – 21/10 (up from 11/5)
2. “Doctor Strange” – 4/1 (down from 7/2)
3. “Rogue One: A Star Wars Story” – 4/1
4. “Arrival” – 7/1
5. “Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them” – 8/1 (down from 15/2)

Possibilities
6. “Captain America: Civil War” – 50/1
7. “The BFG” – 100/1 (down from 80/1)
8. “Passengers” – 100/1
9. “Deepwater Horizon” – 100/1
10. “Kubo and the Two Strings”- 100/1

Correction: An earlier version of this item stated that “Manchester by the Sea” rather than “La La Land” had split the critics awards with “Moonlight.”

Predict the Oscar nominations now; change them till January 24

Be sure to make your Oscar predictions. How do you think “La La Land” will do with academy voters? Weigh in now with your picks so that Hollywood insiders can see how this film is faring in our Oscar odds. You can keep changing your predictions right up until just before nominations are announced on January 24 at 5:00 am PT/8:00 am ET. Be sure to read our contest rules. And join in the fierce debate over the Oscars taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our forums.

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