With 13/8 odds from our 15 film experts, “Fences” is predicted to win Best Film Ensemble at Sunday’s Screen Actors Guild Awards. The film has three total nominations including Best Film Actor for Denzel Washington and Best Supporting Actress for Viola Davis at the 2017 SAG Awards airing live Sunday on TNT and TBS.
Six of our 15 experts from major media outlets are predicting that “Fences” will win: Bonnie Fuller (Hollywood Life), Tariq Khan (Fox News), Jack Mathews (Gold Derby), Tom O’Neil (Gold Derby), Sasha Stone (Awards Daily) and Anne Thompson (Indiewire). Washington directed this adaptation of August Wilson‘s Pulitzer Prize-winning play and stars as Troy, a father struggling with race relations in 1950s America while trying to raise his family and come to terms with events from his life.
Close behind in second place is “Moonlight,” Barry Jenkins‘ coming-of-age drama about a young man struggling to find his place in the world while growing up in a rough Miami neighborhood. Five experts are banking on it to win, which translates to 21/10 odds: Edward Douglas (Weekend Warrior), Scott Mantz (Access Hollywood), Michael Musto (Out.com), Peter Travers (Rolling Stone) and Susan Wloszczyna (RogerEbert.com).
A pair of experts — Joyce Eng (TV Guide) and Brian Truitt (USA Today) — are forecasting a victory for “Manchester by the Sea,” Kenneth Lonergan‘s heart-wrenching domestic drama about a man forced to come to terms with his troubled past when he is made guardian of his nephew. The film has 6/1 odds to win.
In fourth place at 12/1 odds is “,” which has the support of one lone expert: Paul Sheehan (Gold Derby). This biographical drama from Theodore Melfi highlights the personal and professional lives of black female mathematicians who helped NASA launch their first successful space missions.
Rounding out the list of nominees is “Captain Fantastic” with 14/1 odds and the backing of a single expert: Thelma Adams (Gold Derby). In this domestic drama from Matt Ross, a father raises his six children in the forests of the Pacific Northwest before being brought to civilization due to a death in the family.
“Moonlight” is actually the pick to win if you look at the overall combined racetrack odds derived from the predictions of the Experts, Gold Derby Editors who cover awards year-round, the Top 24 Users who got the top scores predicting last year’s SAG winners, the All-Star Top 24 who got the top scores when you combine the last two years’ ceremonies and the thousands of Users who make up the largest (and often savviest) bloc of predictors. “Moonlight” has over 1,300 combined predictions with 21/20 odds, followed by “Fences” in second place with 4/1 odds. “Manchester by the Sea” follows with 4/1 odds, and then “Hidden Figures” at 10/1 odds and “Captain Fantastic” at 28/1 odds.
Winning this award from the Screen Actors Guild is not necessarily of great significance when it comes to forecasting the upcoming Oscars. Since the SAG Awards began in 1994, only 11 out of 22 Best Ensemble SAG winners later prevailed at the Oscars as Best Picture. Those 11 champs are “Shakespeare in Love” (1998), “American Beauty” (1999), “Chicago” (2002), “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King” (2003), “Crash” (2005), “No Country for Old Men” (2007), “Slumdog Millionaire” (2008), “The King’s Speech” (2010), “Argo” (2012), “Birdman” (2014) and “Spotlight” (2015).
Make your SAG picks and tell industry insiders which shows, films and performers you have out front to win on January 29. You can keep changing your predictions right up until just before the show time. Be sure to make your predictions right here. You’ll compete for a place of honor on our leaderboard and a starring role in next year’s Top 24 users (the two dozen folks who do the best predicting this year’s nominees). Read our contest rules.