‘Get Out’: Win with Los Angeles critics boosts Oscar odds in original screenplay race

Get Out” got a huge boost in its Oscar prospects when the Los Angeles Film Critics Assn. awarded writer/director Jordan Peele Best Screenplay on Sunday. Of the top Oscar categories previewed by these scribes, Best Screenplay has the highest percentage of recipients (91%) who go on to contend at the Academy Awards.

In the 43-year history of the LAFCA Awards, 44 films have won the prize for Best Screenplay (there was a tie in 2005 between “Capote” and “The Squid and the Whale”). Of these, only four failed to reap an Oscar bid.

SEE Los Angeles Film Critics Association Awards 2017: Full list of winners

The first of these was in the first year of the awards, 1975, when the prize went to Joan Tewkesbury for “Nashville.” The country music epic did pick up five Oscar bids including Best Picture and Best Director (Robert Altman) and won the prize for Best Original Song (“I’m Easy”).

In 1980 the LA critics voted to give their screenplay prize to John Sayles for his independent film, “Return of the Secaucus 7.” It would be the highest profile prize the movie would receive as it was completely left out at that year’s Oscars.

In 1989, Gus Van Sant and Daniel Yost received the screenplay prize for “Drugstore Cowboy.” While their film didn’t get any love from the academy it picked up several other prestigious awards including Picture, Director (Van Sant) and Screenplay from the National Society of Film Critics, Screenplay from the New York Film Critics Circle and four Independent Spirit Awards including Screenplay and Actor (Matt Dillon).

SEE Los Angeles Film Critics Association Awards 2017 winners report

The most recent instance was in 2002 when the Los Angeles choice, “About Schmidt,” failed to capture a nomination for Adapted Screenplay. This was a huge shock as Alexander Payne and Jim Taylor’s script won the Golden Globe and was looking to be a favorite in the category.

Outside of Screenplay, the LAFCA categories with the highest percentages of corresponding Oscar nominees are Best Director (88% with five missing out), Actor (85% with seven missing), Picture (84% with seven missing), Supporting Actress (73% with ten missing), Actress (72% with 13 missing) and Supporting Actor (71% with 12 missing).

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Be sure to make your Oscar nomination predictions so that Hollywood studio executives and top name stars can see how their films are faring in our Academy Awards odds. Don’t be afraid to jump in now since you can keep changing your predictions until just before nominees are announced on January 23. And join in the fierce debate over the 2018 Oscars taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our film forums. Read more Gold Derby entertainment news.

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