With 2/11 odds from our 13 movie Experts, Casey Affleck (“Manchester by the Sea”) is predicted to win Best Film Drama Actor at Sunday’s Golden Globes. In writer-director Kenneth Lonergan‘s drama, Affleck plays Lee Chandler, a Massachusetts handyman who must confront his past in order to care for his nephew (Lucas Hedges). The film has four other nominations including Best Film Drama at the 2017 Golden Globe Awards airing live on NBC and hosted by Jimmy Fallon.
Twelve of our 13 Experts are predicting an Affleck victory: Thelma Adams (Gold Derby), Edward Douglas (Weekend Warrior), Joyce Eng (TV Guide), Scott Mantz (Access Hollywood), Jack Mathews (Gold Derby), Michael Musto (Out.com), Tom O’Neil (Gold Derby), Christopher Rosen (Entertainment Weekly), Paul Sheehan (Gold Derby), Keith Simanton (IMDB), Sasha Stone (Awards Daily) and Susan Wloszczyna (RogerEbert.com).
In second place is Denzel Washington (“Fences”) with 9/1 odds. The one Expert picking him to win is Tariq Khan (Fox News). Washington plays Troy Maxson, a garbage collector with a tumultuous family life in 1950s Pittsburgh. He also directed “Fences,” which is adapted from the play that won him a Tony Award in 2010; the film has one other Globe nomination: Best Film Supporting Actress for Viola Davis.
According to our overall combined odds featuring the predictions of all Experts, Editors, Top 24 Users (those who did the best at their winner picks last year), and All Users, the rankings are the same. The favored pick of over 1,400 people is Affleck with 1/4 odds over Washington, who’s a little closer than in our Experts’ rankings with 6/1 odds. Garfield follows with 50/1 odds, and then Edgerton at 66/1 and Mortensen at 80/1.
Winning this award from the Hollywood Foreign Press Assn. is highly significant when it comes to forecasting the upcoming Oscars. During the 21st century every winner has gone on to at least be nominated at the Academy Awards for Best Actor. And 10 out of the 16 won at the Oscars after winning the Globe: Sean Penn (“Mystic River,” 2003), Philip Seymour Hoffman (“Capote,” 2005), Forest Whitaker (“The Last King of Scotland,” 2006), Daniel Day-Lewis (“There Will Be Blood,” 2007), Jeff Bridges (“Crazy Heart,” 2009), Colin Firth (“The King’s Speech,” 2010), Daniel Day-Lewis (“Lincoln,” 2012), Matthew McConaughey (“Dallas Buyers Club,” 2013), Eddie Redmayne (“The Theory of Everything,” 2014) and Leonardo DiCaprio (“The Revenant,” 2015).
Make your Golden Globes Awards picks now and tell industry insiders which films and performers you have out front to win on January 8. You can keep changing them until just before show time. Be sure to make your predictions right here. You’ll compete for a place of honor on our leaderboard and a starring role in next year’s Top 24 Users (the two dozen folks who do the best predicting this year’s nominees). Read our contest rules.