With 8/15 odds from our 10 movie Experts, “Manchester by the Sea” is projected to win Best Film Drama at Sunday’s Golden Globes. Directed and written by Kenneth Lonergan, the film stars Casey Affleck as a New England janitor forced to take in his teenage nephew (Lucas Hedges) after the boy’s father dies. Affleck and supporting actress Michelle Williams are also nominated at the 2017 Golden Globe Awards airing live on NBC and hosted by Jimmy Fallon. Seven of our 10 Experts are predicting the ‘Manchester’ victory: Thelma Adams (Gold Derby), Joyce Eng (TV Guide), Tariq Khan (Fox News), Jack Mathews (Gold Derby), Michael Musto (out.com), Tom O’Neil (Gold Derby), and Sasha Stone (Awards Daily).
In second place is “Moonlight” with 12/5 odds. The three Experts picking that film to win are Edward Douglas (Weekend Warrior), Paul Sheehan (Gold Derby), and Susan Wloszczyna (RogerEbert.com). Directed and written by Barry Jenkins, the movie features nominated supporting performances by Mahershala Ali and Naomie Harris. Much further behind are “Hacksaw Ridge” with 50/1 odds, “Lion” with 66/1 odds, and “Hell or High Water” with 80/1 odds.
According to our overall combined odds featuring the predictions of all Experts, Editors, Top 24 Users (those that did the best at their winner picks last year), and Users, the top choice is different. The favored pick of over 1,500 people is “Moonlight” with very close 10/11 odds over “Manchester” with 3/2 odds. Mel Gibson‘s “Hacksaw Ridge” follows with 28/1 odds, and then Garth Davis‘ “Lion” at 50/1, and David Mackenzie‘s “Hell or High Water” at 80/1.
Winning this award from the Hollywood Foreign Press Assn. is an important barometer for the upcoming Oscars. Every champ in this category during the 21st century has gone on to at least contend at the Academy Awards for Best Picture. The following six films won at the Globes and then later for the top Oscar category: “Gladiator” (2000), “A Beautiful Mind” (2001), “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King” (2003), “Slumdog Millionaire” (2008), “Argo” (2012), and “12 Years a Slave” (2013).
Make your Golden Globes Awards picks now and tell industry insiders which films and performers you have out front to win on January 8. You can keep changing them until just before show time. Be sure to make your predictions right here. You’ll compete for a place of honor on our leaderboard and a starring role in next year’s Top 24 Users (the two dozen folks who do the best predicting this year’s nominees). Read our contest rules.