Golden Globes 2018: Could Armie Hammer (‘Call Me by Your Name’) pull off an upset like Aaron Taylor-Johnson?

Call Me by Your Namewasn’t as big a hit at the Golden Globes as we expected it to be. Even though it’s nominated for Best Film Drama, Best Film Drama Actor (Timothee Chalamet), and Best Film Supporting Actor (Armie Hammer), it missed out in some key categories, including for its writing, directing, the original song “Mystery of Love,” and the supporting performance by Michael Stuhlbarg. Despite the shortfall, however, could Hammer pull off a surprise victory similar to the one achieved last year by Aaron Taylor-Johnson (“Nocturnal Animals”)?

Taylor-Johnson was one of the biggest surprise winners at the last Golden Globes. The frontrunner in that Best Supporting Actor race was Mahershala Ali (“Moonlight”), who did go on to win the Oscar. Not only that, Taylor-Johnson was nominated and won despite the fact that his co-star Michael Shannon was the actor who had been most discussed for a nomination for the film up to that point — and Shannon did end up with the film’s sole Oscar nom.

Hammer is in a similar position because he too was nominated ahead of a lauded co-star, Stuhlbarg. He too is perceived as an underdog against frontrunners Willem Dafoe (“The Florida Project”) and Sam Rockwell (“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”). And he’s a young up-and-coming actor up against a field of veterans and character actors, so he stands out.

His youth would be a disadvantage at other Hollywood awards where young men often don’t get the respect of their older counterparts, but the Golden Globes don’t tend to slap the stud the way the Oscars and Emmys often do. You can see that in past Globe winners like Ryan Gosling (“La La Land”), Leonardo DiCaprio (“The Aviator,” “The Wolf of Wall Street,” and “The Revenant”), and Taylor-Johnson on the film side, and James Franco (“James Dean”), Jonathan Rhys Myers (“Elvis”), Matt Bomer (“The Normal Heart”), and Tom Hiddleston (“The Night Manager”) on the TV side. And with Stuhlbarg out of the running, Hammer won’t have to worry about splitting the votes of “Call Me by Your Name” supporters.

But in other ways Hammer may be an even better bet than Taylor-Johnson was last year. When last year’s Globe nominations were announced it was Taylor-Johnson’s first major recognition for that role, but Hammer has already shown up on other major awards lists, including the Critics’ Choice Awards and Independent Spirit Awards. Hammer is seen as a stronger Oscar contender than Taylor-Johnson was, and “Call Me by Your Name” is a stronger Best Picture contender than “Nocturnal Animals” was. All of those factors position Hammer even better for an upset.

As of this writing Hammer is predicted to win by one of the Expert film journalists who have made their picks so far: Tariq Khan (Fox News). He’s also backed by Gold Derby Editor Chris Beachum. He’s the predicted winner according to one of our Top 24 Users who got the highest scores predicting last year’s winners, and one of our All-Star Top 24, who got the highest scores when you combine the last two years’ predictions. A victory here would also be good news for Hammer at the Oscars since eight of the last 10 winners at the Globes went on to win Best Supporting Actor from the academy. And Taylor-Johnson was the first since Richard Benjamin in “The Sunshine Boys” (1975) to be snubbed entirely at the Oscars after winning the Globe.

When you combine the predictions of all 1,300 users currently making their picks, Hammer ranks third in the race with odds of 15/2, behind frontrunner Dafoe (4/5 odds) and Rockwell (10/3 odds). Do you agree that he could surprise us when winners are revealed?

Be sure to make your Golden Globe predictions so that Hollywood insiders can see how their films and performers are faring in our odds. You can keep changing your predictions until just before winners are announced on January 7. And join in the fierce debate over the 2018 Golden Globes taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our TV forums. Read more Gold Derby entertainment news.

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