With the Grammy Awards being held on Sunday, February 12, live on CBS, our music experts have now chimed in with their predictions for who will win on music’s biggest night, and with 4/11 odds from our nine Experts, Adele is predicted to win Song of the Year for “Hello.” It would be the second win in that category for the singer-songwriter, who co-wrote “Hello” with Greg Kurstin, who hasn’t won a Grammy but has been nominated for Producer of the Year three times, including this year.
Unlike Record of the Year, which awards the singer, producers and engineers, Song of the Year awards the year’s best songwriting, and seven of our nine Experts are predicting an Adele victory: Joyce Eng (TV Guide), Glenn Gamboa (Newsday), Edna Gundersen (Gold Derby), Tom O’Neil (Gold Derby), Lyndsey Parker (Yahoo Music), Adnan Virk (ESPN) and Chris Willman (Gold Derby).
In second place is Beyonce‘s “Formaton” with 7/2 odds; the two Experts picking it to win are Bonnie Fuller (Hollywood Life) and Paul Sheehan (Gold Derby). Beyonce wrote the song with Khalif Brown, Asheton Hogan and Michael L. Williams II. This would be the second victory in the category for Beyonce. She previously won in 2010 for “Single Ladies (Put a Ring on It).” In fact, it’s the only general-field Grammy that Beyonce has ever won.
The rest of the contenders are much further behind: “7 Years” by Lukas Graham with 50/1 odds, “Love Yourself” by Justin Bieber with 66/1 odds and surprise nominee “I Took a Pill in Ibiza” by Mike Posner with 80/1 odds.
According to our overall combined odds featuring the predictions of all Experts, Editors, Top 24 Users (those who did the best at their winner picks last year), All Star Top 24 (who got the highest scores when you combine the last two years’ Grammy winners) and All Users, the rankings are nearly the same. The favored pick of over 1,100 people is Adele with 1/4 odds over Beyonce with 6/1 odds. Bieber follows with 33/1 odds, and then Lukas Graham at 40/1 and Posner at 66/1.
Our Editors are nearly unanimous with five our of six of us backing Adele: Chris Beachum, Marcus James Dixon, Rob Licuria, O’Neil and myself. Sheehan is forecasting Beyonce.
The Top 24 Users agree with the consensus that Adele is out front, and they too are nearly unanimous. Twenty-three of them backing “Hello” to win including Charles Bright, who got the highest score predicting last year’s winners with 90% accuracy. Only one top user disagrees, PierceUNC, but instead of betting on Beyonce he’s going with Bieber.
Our All-Star Top 24 believe so strongly that Adele will win that all 24 of them are betting on her. They are the only group of predictions who are unanimous on the projected result.
Gold Derby readers just like YOU often turn out to be our smartest prognosticators, so it’s important that you give us your predictions. You can continue to update and change your forecasts as often as you like before winner are announced on Feb. 12. Just click “Save” when you’ve settled on your choices. You’ll compete to win a $100 Amazon gift certificate, bragging rights and a place of honor on our leaderboard. Our racetrack odds change as you make your predictions, just as they do when you bet on the Emmys, Oscars, Golden Globes and more. Be sure to read our contest rules and sound off on the Grammy race in our music forum.