How far ahead is Julia Louis-Dreyfus (‘Veep’) in the Emmy race? She has an 81% chance of winning again

It’s no surprise that Julia Louis-Dreyfus (“Veep”) is the Emmy frontrunner for Best Comedy Actress. She has never lost this award for her role as Selina Meyer in the HBO political satire, having won for the last five years in a row. She has six awards in the category total when you include her victory for “The New Adventures of Old Christine” in 2006, which is more than anyone else in the history of this race. If that weren’t enough, “Veep” has 17 total nominations, more than it’s ever had before, so the show as a whole is looking stronger than ever. But just how far out front is it? When you combine all of the nearly 2,000 users currently making their predictions at Gold Derby, Louis-Dreyfus gets overwhelming odds of 1/4, which translates to around an 81% chance of winning a record-breaking sixth Emmy.

That includes support from 15 of the 17 Experts from top media outlets we’ve polled so far for their picks: Debra Birnbaum (Variety), Eric Deggans (NPR), Joyce Eng (TV Guide), Nikki Novak (Fandango), Tom O’Neil (Gold Derby), Lynette Rice (Entertainment Weekly), Robert Rorke (New York Post), Matt Roush (TV Guide Magazine), Paul Sheehan (Gold Derby), Anne Thompson (IndieWire), Peter Travers (Rolling Stone), Ken Tucker (Yahoo), Adnan Virk (ESPN), Glenn Whipp (LA Times), and Jarett Wieselman (Buzzfeed).

Also backing “Veep” are all seven of our Editors: Chris Beachum, Marcus James Dixon, Rob Licuria, Matt Noble, O’Neil, Sheehan, and myself.

Out of our Top 24 Users who got the highest scores predicting last year’s Emmy winners, 22 pick Louis-Dreyfus to repeat. And 22 of our All-Star Top 24, who got the highest scores when you combine the last two years’ Emmy results, also forecast her victory.

But while 1/4 odds may seem indomitable, an 81% chance of winning still leaves a 19% chance of an upset, and according to our predictions the best chance of a surprise comes from Tracee Ellis Ross (“Black-ish”), who won the Golden Globe earlier this year. She has support from one Expert, two of our Top 24, and two All-Stars, resulting in odds of 10/1, or a 9% chance of winning the Emmy. TV veteran Lily Tomlin (“Grace and Frankie”) is farther behind in third place with 25/1 odds (4% chance of winning) based on support from one Expert.

Do you agree with our forecasts? Are we overestimating Louis-Dreyfus, or is she even farther out front than we think?

Be sure to make your Emmy predictions so that Hollywood insiders can see how their TV shows and performers are faring in our Emmy odds. You can keep changing your predictions until just before winners are announced on September 17. And join in the fierce debate over the 2017 Emmys taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our TV forums. Read more Gold Derby entertainment news.

More News from GoldDerby

Loading