Lesley Manville is moving up in the world — the Oscar world at least. She’s a contender for Best Supporting Actress for her role as Cyril Woodcock, the sister of a temperamental fashion designer, in the period drama “Phantom Thread.” According to the combined predictions of more than 5,500 users at Gold Derby she’s an underdog with 50/1 odds. But the Expert film journalists we’ve polled for their picks give her a much better chance than that.
As of this writing Manville is right on the cusp of a nomination according to our Experts’ predictions. Currently 11 out of 27 of them are betting that she’ll get in: Erik Davis (Faandango), Dave Karger (IMDb), Andrea Mandell (USA Today), Kevin Polowy (Yahoo), Krista Smith (Vanity Fair), Anne Thompson (IndieWire), Peter Travers (Rolling Stone), Brian Truitt (USA Today), Sara Vilkomerson (Entertainment Weekly), Jeffrey Wells (Hollywood Elsewhere), and Glenn Whipp (Los Angeles Times).
Manville may have a bit of an uphill battle as she was missing from the Critics’ Choice, Golden Globe, and SAG Award nominations, but that may be partly due to the film’s late unveiling. “Phantom Thread” didn’t start screening for press or industry until late November, and it doesn’t open until Christmas Day. That didn’t leave too much time for anyone from the film to gain traction on the awards circuit except Daniel Day-Lewis, but he’s a unique case. His role had been discussed with eager anticipation before the film even had an official title, especially after the news broke that he intends to retire from acting after this movie.
But there’s still a chance for a supporting nomination for Manville. Sometimes Oscar voters will recognize a supporting performer unexpectedly for a film with a lead performance they’re enthusiastic about, like Maggie Gyllenhaal in “Crazy Heart” (2009) or Jacki Weaver in “Silver Linings Playbook” (2012). And Manville has a bit of an Oscar IOU. She was buzzed about for her performance in Mike Leigh‘s “Another Year” (2010), for which she earned nominations at the BAFTAs and European Film Awards, but she missed the cut at the Oscars. The BAFTAs will announce their nominees on January 10, five days into Oscar voting, and a British film like “Phantom Thread” could do especially well at those kudos, which could give Manville an extra last-minute boost.
Do you think Manville will earn her first Oscar nomination for this performance? Make your predictions here, and watch our recent in-depth interview with Manville below.
Be sure to make your Oscar nomination predictions so that Hollywood studio executives and top name stars can see how their films are faring in our Academy Awards odds. Don’t be afraid to jump in now since you can keep changing your predictions until just before nominees are announced on January 23. And join in the fierce debate over the 2018 Oscars taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our film forums. Read more Gold Derby entertainment news.