It was a bit of a surprise in 2016 when “Master of None” co-creators Aziz Ansari and Alan Yang won the Emmy for Best Comedy Writing for the episode “Parents.” It was up against two installments of “Veep,” including “Mother,” the episode that helped Julia Louis-Dreyfus win her fifth Emmy. But now that “Master of None” has twice as much TV academy support — eight nominations compared to four last year — we’re confident that the Netflix series will win again.
As of this writing “Master of None” has leading odds of 2/5 for the episode “Thanksgiving,” which translates to a 71% chance of prevailing. These odds are based on the latest predictions of Expert TV journalists, Gold Derby’s own Editors, the Top 24 Users who got the high scores in last year’s Emmy predictions, the All-Star Top 24 who scored high in the last two years’ combined Emmy predix, and thousands of total Users who are our largest and often smartest predictions bloc.
Written by Ansari and his co-star Lena Waithe, “Thanksgiving” focuses on Waithe’s character Denise, who comes out as lesbian to her family over the course of several holiday dinners from childhood to adulthood. It was one of the show’s most critically acclaimed episodes, but it faces a tough challenge from another boundary-breaking nominee: “B.A.N.,” written by Donald Glover for the FX series “Atlanta.” Featuring satirical commercials and an interview with Paper Boi (Brian Tyree Henry) on the fictional Black American Network, the episode ranks second with odds of 13/2, or a 14% chance of winning.
There is one other episode with a strong chance to upset according to our predictions: “Groundbreaking” by “Veep” showrunner David Mandel, which gets 9/1 odds, or an 11% chance of winning. “Veep” won this category in 2015, but that was for series creator Armando Iannucci, Simon Blackwell, and Tony Roche for the episode “Election Night” in Iannucci’s last season as showrunner. And like last year, “Veep” risks splitting votes with another nominated episode, “Georgia” by Billy Kimball.
The remaining nominees in this category — “Georgia,” “Streets on Lock” by Stephen Glover (“Atlanta”), and “Success Failure” by Alec Berg (“Silicon Valley”) — are about even with distant 66/1 odds, or less than a 2% chance each of winning.
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