The Primetime Emmy telecast is just a few days away as of this writing, and in one of the most star-studded and hotly contested races of the year, Best Movie/Mini Actress, there has emerged a clear frontrunner: Nicole Kidman for her role as a retired lawyer, mother, and abused wife in HBO’s limited series “Big Little Lies.” She’s far ahead with odds of 4/9, which translates to a 70% chance of winning. That’s a big lead, but it’s not insurmountable.
Our official racetrack odds are based on the latest predictions of Expert TV journalists, Gold Derby’s own Editors, the Top 24 Users who got the high scores in last year’s Emmy predictions, the All-Star Top 24 who scored high in the last two years’ combined Emmy predix, and thousands of total Users who are our largest and often smartest predictions bloc.
The Creative Arts Emmys last weekend may have given Kidman and “Big Little Lies” a boost: the seven-part limited series won three prizes, including Best Movie/Mini Casting. That particular victory could be crucial since the winner of that category in the last two years — “Olive Kitteridge” in 2015 and “The People v. O.J. Simpson” in 2016 — both went on to win Best Limited Series and sweep three out of the four acting races. It also doesn’t hurt that Kidman is having a stellar year all-around, including her fourth Oscar nomination for “Lion,” and other noteworthy film projects including “The Beguiled” and “The Killing of a Sacred Deer.”
But Kidman is still vulnerable to Jessica Lange (“Feud: Bette and Joan”), who is a proven Emmy darling with three victories to date and has the benefit of a showy role as a real-life Hollywood icon: Joan Crawford. Lange currently has odds of 9/2, or a 19% chance of victory.
Judging by our odds, it’s highly unlikely that any of the other four nominees will prevail — though not impossible. Carrie Coon (“Fargo”) ranks third with 20/1 odds (4.6% chance of winning), followed by Susan Sarandon (“Feud”) with 28/1 odds (3.6% chance of winning), Reese Witherspoon (“Big Little Lies”) with 50/1 odds (1.8% chance of winning), and Felicity Huffman (“American Crime”) with 80/1 odds (1.3% chance of winning).
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