Oscar experts predict Best Foreign Language Film showdown: ‘The Salesman’ v. ‘Toni Erdmann’

Reaction to President Donald Trump‘s Muslim ban has boosted the Iranian drama “The Salesman” ahead of the German comedy “Toni Erdmann” in the Oscar race for Best Foreign Language Film according to our Oscar experts. With fully half of our 26 experts now backing “The Salesman,” it has odds of 11/10. “Toni Erdmann,” which led this race until just a week ago, has the support of 12 experts and odds of 5/4. One expert is predicting an upset by the Swedish entry, “A Man Called Ove,” giving it odds of 16/1.

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Asghar Farhadi, the director of “The Salesman,” has been vocal in his criticism of the ban which would have kept him from attending the Oscars. He won this award in 2012 for “A Separation” which was also a nominee for Best Original Screenplay. Farhadi’s film focuses on the ways a couple’s relationship is tested by outside forces, this time by the life of the woman who previously occupied their new home. “The Salesman” competed for the Palme d’Or at the 2016 Cannes Film Festival and took home prizes for Best Actor (Shahab Hosseini) and Best Screenplay.

Oscars: Every Best Actor Winner in Academy History (Photo Gallery)

Maren Ade’s “Toni Erdmann” is about a father’s decision to reconnect with his adult daughter. It too vied for the Palme d’Or at the 2016 Cannes Film Festival where it won the festival’s FIPRESCI Award. Shortly after Cannes it won the FIPRESCI Grand Prix for best film of the year, a prestigious award that went to “Mad Max: Fury Road,” “Boyhood” and “Amour” in recent years. Ade was the first female filmmaker so honored.

See how our experts rank Oscar nominees according to likelihood of winning in all top races. Use the drop-down menus at the top of each page to see other categories. And see individual experts’ Oscar predictions as well.

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BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM 

1.”The Salesman” (11/10 odds)
Eric Deggans (NPR), Joyce Eng (TV Guide), Matthew Jacobs (Huffington Post), Tariq Khan (Fox News),  Michael Musto (Out.com)Tom O’Neil (Gold Derby), Christopher Rosen (Entertainment Weekly), Paul Sheehan (Gold  Derby), Nicole Sperling (Entertainment Weekly), Sasha Stone (Awards Daily),Anne Thompson (Indiewire), Adnan Virk (ESPN), Glenn Whipp (Los Angeles Times).

2.”Toni Erdmann” (5/4 odds)
Thelma Adams (Gold Derby), Matt Atchity (Rotten Tomatoes), Erik Davis (Fandango), Edward Douglas (Weekend Warrior), Bonnie Fuller (Hollywood Life), Tim Gray (Variety), Scott Mantz (Access Hollywood), Jack Mathews (Gold Derby), Kevin Polowy (Yahoo!),  Peter Travers (Rolling Stone), Brian Truitt (USA Today), Susan Wloszczyna (RogetEbert.com).

3. “A Man Called Ove” (16/1 odds)
Keith Simanton (IMDB)

4. “This Land is Mine” (66/1 odds)

5.”Tanna” (80/1 odds)

Predict the Oscar winners now; change them till February 26

Be sure to make your Oscar predictions. Weigh in now with your picks so that Hollywood insiders can see how their films are faring in our Oscar odds. You can keep changing your predictions right up until just before winners are announced on February 26 at 5:00 pm PT/8:00 pm ET. And join in the fierce debate over the Oscars taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our forums.

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