“The SAG Awards made everything confusing again,” admits Gold Derby reader Joseph Schiltz (screen name James_Fenimore), who scored a terrific 81.94% when predicting the 2017 Oscar nominations. He actually tied with JasonOsia with that percentage but had the better point total of 62,938 by using the 500 super bets wisely. Below, see this reader’s current Oscar picks for Best Actor and Best Actress following the Screen Actors Guild results, and then be sure to make your own Oscar predictions.
“This is definitely the trickiest of the four acting races,” explains Schiltz. “For a long time I had been predicting Denzel Washington (‘Fences’), since Casey Affleck‘s (‘Manchester by the Sea’) performance struck me as more muted and low-key than the typical acting winner. Casey had such a stranglehold with the critics groups and Globes that I was tempted to switch over … until the SAG Awards.”
He continues, “But the SAG has had a good track record in tight Best Actor races in recent years (like Eddie Redmayne in ‘Theory of Everything’ and Sean Penn in ‘Milk’), so I’ll stick with Denzel. Too bad the BAFTAs won’t help us here [since Washington is snubbed].”
Schiltz is predicting Emma Stone (‘La La Land’) for Best Actress. However, he adds, “Although Natalie Portman probably leads with the critics’ awards too, it’s hard for me to see her winning. Not just because she won so recently, but also because ‘Jackie’ is not a movie that the guilds and Oscars have been particularly enthused about.”
“In acting races, it can really help if your movie is overall the most popular one — sort of like Penn in ‘Milk,’ or Jennifer Lawrence in ‘Silver Linings Playbook,’ or Jean Dujardin in ‘The Artist,'” he concludes. “Obviously, that helps Stone tremendously, so I don’t see any reason to waver from SAG here. For the same reason, I’m skeptical that Isabelle Huppert can win, just because it’s hard to imagine Oscar voters flocking to ‘Elle’ en masse.”
Be sure to make your Oscar predictions. Weigh in now with your picks so that Hollywood insiders can see how their films are faring in our Oscar odds. You can keep changing your predictions right up until just before winners are announced on February 26 at 5:00 pm PT/8:00 pm ET. And join in the fierce debate over the Oscars taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our forums.