Best Supporting Actor Oscar predictions by experts: Willem Dafoe (‘The Florida Project’) pulls ahead of Sam Rockwell (‘Three Billboards’)

According to our 24 Oscar experts from major media outletsWillem Dafoe (“The Florida Project”) has broken his tie Sam Rockwell (“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”) in the race for Best Supporting Actor. Dafoe, who won this award from the New York Film Critics Circle on Nov. 30, now has the backing of nine experts and odds of 3/1 to win an Oscar. Rockwell has eight votes and odds of 10/3 (See the rankings of the experts in 19 Oscar categories.)

This Academy Award often goes to an actor who has been overlooked by the academy in the past. Rockwell, who has never been nominated despite acclaimed turns in such films as “Conviction,” could win for his scene-stealing work as a racist police offer in Martin McDonagh‘s dark drama. Another expert expects his co-star, two-time Oscar nominee Woody Harrelson, to win for his role in thatas a dying police chief.

Dafoe, a well-respected character actor, lost this race back in 1986 for his role in the Best Picture “Platoon” and again in 2000 for “Shadow of the Vampire.” He could finally win for his sensitive portrayal of a kindly hotel manager in Sean Baker‘s sophomore film.

Three experts foresee a win Michael Stuhlbarg for his understated work as the father of a teenager who come out in “Call Me By Your Name.” He headlined the Oscar-nominated “A Serious Man” back in 2009 before featuring in such fare as “Hugo” “Lincoln” and “Arrival” but has yet to be recognized by the academy. Another expert is predicting that Armie Hammer will prevail on his first nomination for playing the son’s lover.

And one-time Best Actor nominee Richard Jenkins (“The Visitor,” 2007) is the pick of two experts for his role as a kindly neighbor conscripted by his friend (Sally Hawkins) to help free a creature in “The Shape of Water.”

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Below we break down the Oscar Best Supporting Actor predictions by expert and include the most up-to-date odds for each of the top 10 contenders to win. And be sure to check out how our experts rank Oscar contenders in the other top races. Use the drop-down menus at the top of each page to see the other categories.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1. Willem Dafoe, “The Florida Project”: Nine experts (3/1 odds)
Thelma Adams (Gold Derby)
Erik Davis (Fandango)
Joyce Eng (TV Guide)
Matthew Jacobs (Huffington Post)
Christopher Rosen (Entertainment Weekly)
Sasha Stone (Awards Daily)
Peter Travers (Rolling Stone)
Brian Truitt (USA Today)
Susan Wloszczyna (RogetEbert.com)

2. Sam Rockwell, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”: Eight experts (10/3 odds)
Dave Karger (IMDB)
Scott Mantz (Access Hollywood)
Michael Musto (NewNowNext)
Keith Simanton (IMDB)
Krista Smith (Vanity Fair)
Anne Thompson (Indiewire)
Sara Vilkomerson (Entertainment Weekly)
Adnan Virk (ESPN)

3. Michael Stuhlbarg, “Call Me By Your Name”: Three experts (5/1 odds)
Tim Gray (Variety)
Tom O’Neil (Gold Derby)
Jeffrey Wells (Hollywood-Elsewhere)

4. Richard Jenkins, “The Shape of Water”: Two experts (9/1 odds)
Tariq Khan (Fox News)
Jack Mathews (Gold Derby)

5. Armie Hammer, “Call Me By Your Name”: One expert (10/1 odds)
Edward Douglas (Tracking Board)

6. Jason Mitchell, “Mudbound”: One expert (25/1 odds)
Kevin Polowy (Yahoo)

7. Ben Mendelsohn, “Darkest Hour”: One expert (33/1 odds)

8. Mark Rylance, “Dunkirk”: (33/1 odds)

9. Woody Harrelson, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”: (66/1 odds)

10. Ray Romano, “The Big Sick” (66/1 odds)

PREDICT the Oscar nominees now; change them until January 23

2018 Oscars Best Supporting Actor: Experts Predictions

Be sure to make your Oscar nomination predictions so that Hollywood studio executives can see how their films are faring in our Academy Awards odds. Don’t be afraid to jump in now since you can keep changing your predictions until just before nominees are announced on January 23.

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