Best Supporting Actor Oscar predictions by experts: Willem Dafoe (‘The Florida Project’) moves ahead of Sam Rockwell (‘Three Billboards’)

According to our 26 Oscar experts from major media outletsWillem Dafoe (“The Florida Project”) has widened his lead over Sam Rockwell (“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”) in the race for Best Supporting Actor. Dafoe, who has dominated the critics awards, now has the backing of 13 experts and odds of 5/2 to win an Oscar. Rockwell has 10 votes and odds of 14/5 (See the rankings of the experts in 22 Oscar categories.)

This Academy Award often goes to an actor who has been overlooked by the academy in the past. Rockwell, who has never been nominated despite acclaimed turns in such films as “Conviction,” could win for his scene-stealing work as a racist police offer in Martin McDonagh‘s dark drama.

Dafoe, a well-respected character actor, lost this race back in 1986 for his role in the Best Picture “Platoon” and again in 2000 for “Shadow of the Vampire.” He could finally prevail for his sensitive portrayal of a kindly hotel manager in Sean Baker‘s sophomore film.

Two experts foresee Michael Stuhlbarg winning for his understated work as the father of a teenager who come out in “Call Me By Your Name.” He headlined the Oscar-nominated “A Serious Man” back in 2009 before featuring in such fare as “Hugo” “Lincoln” and “Arrival” but has yet to be recognized by the academy. And one-time Best Actor nominee Richard Jenkins (“The Visitor,” 2007) is the pick of one expert for his role as a kindly neighbor conscripted by his friend (Sally Hawkins) to help free a creature in “The Shape of Water.”

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Below we break down the Oscar Best Supporting Actor predictions by expert and include the most up-to-date odds for each of the top 10 contenders to win. And be sure to check out how our experts rank Oscar contenders in the other top races. Use the drop-down menus at the top of each page to see the other categories.

1. Willem Dafoe, “The Florida Project”: 13 experts (27/10 odds)
Erik Davis (Fandango)
Edward Douglas (Tracking Board)
Joyce Eng (TV Guide)
Matthew Jacobs (Huffington Post)
Michael Musto (NewNowNext)
Kevin Polowy (Yahoo)
Christopher Rosen (Entertainment Weekly)
Sasha Stone (Awards Daily)
Peter Travers (Rolling Stone)
Brian Truitt (USA Today)
Adnan Virk (ESPN)
Glenn Whipp (Los Angeles Times)
Susan Wloszczyna (

2. Sam Rockwell, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”: 10 experts (14/5 odds)
Thelma Adams (Gold Derby)
Dave Karger (IMDB)
Andrea Mandell (USA Today)
Scott Mantz (Access Hollywood)
Jack Mathews (Gold Derby)
Tom O’Neil (Gold Derby)
Keith Simanton (IMDB)
Krista Smith (Vanity Fair)
Anne Thompson (Indiewire)
Sara Vilkomerson (Entertainment Weekly)

3. Michael Stuhlbarg, “Call Me By Your Name”: Two experts (13/2 odds)
Tim Gray (Variety)
Jeffrey Wells (Hollywood-Elsewhere)

4. Richard Jenkins, “The Shape of Water”: One expert (17/2 odds)
Tariq Khan (Fox News)

5. Armie Hammer, “Call Me By Your Name”: (9/1 odds)

6. Jason Mitchell, “Mudbound”: (18/1 odds)

7. Ben Mendelsohn, “Darkest Hour”: One expert (33/1 odds)

8. Mark Rylance, “Dunkirk”: (33/1 odds)

9. Woody Harrelson, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”: (66/1 odds)

10. Ray Romano, “The Big Sick” (66/1 odds)

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2018 Oscars Best Supporting Actor: Experts Predictions

Be sure to make your Oscar nomination predictions so that Hollywood studio executives can see how their films are faring in our Academy Awards odds. Don’t be afraid to jump in now since you can keep changing your predictions until just before nominees are announced on January 23.

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