While “La La Land” tries to run away with Best Picture at the 2017 Oscars, the race is also heating up to decide the best in animated, foreign-language and documentary filmmaking. So who will earn nominations in these races when the final contenders are announced on Tuesday, January 24?
These official racetrack odds below are derived from the predictions of Expert film journalists along with the Gold Derby Editors who cover awards year-round, the Top 24 Users who got the top scores predicting last year’s Oscar nominations, the All-Star Top 24 who got the top scores when you combine the last two years’ nominations and the thousands of Users who make up the largest (and often savviest) bloc of predictors.
The Experts strongly favor “Zootopia” for the win in the Animated Feature contest, with 24 out of 26 backing Disney’s blockbuster allegory about race relations: Thelma Adams (Gold Derby), Matt Atchity (Rotten Tomatoes), Erik Davis (Fandango), Edward Douglas (Weekend Warrior), Joyce Eng (TV Guide), Tim Gray (Variety), Michael Hogan (Vanity Fair), Matthew Jacobs (Huffington Post), Tariq Khan (Fox News), Scott Mantz (Access Hollywood), Jack Mathews (Gold Derby), Michael Musto (Out.com), Tom O’Neil (Gold Derby), Kevin Polowy (Yahoo), Christopher Rosen (Entertainment Weekly), Paul Sheehan (Gold Derby), Nicole Sperling (Entertainment Weekly), Sasha Stone (Awards Daily), Anne Thompson (IndieWire), Peter Travers (Rolling Stone), Brian Truitt (USA Today), Adnan Virk (ESPN), Glenn Whipp (LA Times) and Susan Wloszczyna (RogerEbert.com).
There are only two outliers: Bonnie Fuller (Hollywood Life) is forecasting another Disney hit, “Moana,” while Keith Simanton (IMDb) is going out on a limb for Universal’s “Sing.” He’ll have major bragging rights if his pick pays off: “Sing” ranks seventh overall in our combined odds.
Meanwhile, our Editors are unanimous, with all seven of us picking “Zootopia” for the win: Chris Beachum, Marcus James Dixon, Rob Licuria, Matt Noble, Tom O’Neil, Paul Sheehan and myself.
Our Top 24 Users are also strongly backing “Zootopia,” which has support from 18 of those elite users, but not JasonOsia, who had the highest accuracy predicting last year’s Oscar nominations (83%) — he’s taking a chance on recent Golden Globe nominee “My Life as a Zucchini” instead. Another top user is predicting “Kubo and the Two Strings,” which would be the first Oscar winning feature for the stop-motion animation studio Laika, which previously made Oscar nominees “Coraline,” “ParaNorman” and “The Boxtrolls.”
Our All-Star users are also overwhelmingly in favor of “Zootopia.” Twenty-two of them agree it’s the frontrunner to win.
In the Best Foreign Language Film race, Germany’s quirky and acclaimed family comedy “Toni Erdmann” is the frontrunner this year with support from 17 out of 20 Experts, five out of seven Editors, 17 of our Top 24 Users and 16 of our All-Stars. But Iran’s “The Salesman,” Denmark’s “Land of Mine” and Sweden’s “A Man Called Ove” are also forces to be reckoned with in that race.
Best Documentary Feature appears to be especially interesting this year. “O.J.: Made in America,” ESPN’s nearly eight-hour miniseries about the rise and fall of football player-turned-murder suspect O.J. Simpson, is not only eligible to compete for Oscar, it’s also the frontrunner to win with support from 17 out of 20 Experts, four out of seven Editors, 18 of our Top 24 Users and 17 of our All-Star users. But Ava DuVernay‘s prison-system expose “13th” is a formidable challenger in that race.
Be sure to make your Oscar predictions. Weigh in now with your picks so that Hollywood insiders can see how this film is faring in our Oscar odds. You can keep changing your predictions right up until just before nominations are announced on January 24 at 5:00 am PT/8:00 am ET. Be sure to read our contest rules. And join in the fierce debate over the Oscars taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our forums.