The 2017 Oscar race for Best Actor has looked like a two-way race for much of the season. Are we on the right track? Who will make the cut in this race when the final contenders are announced on Tuesday, January 24?
These official racetrack odds below are derived from the predictions of Expert film journalists along with the Gold Derby Editors who cover awards year-round, the Top 24 Users who got the top scores predicting last year’s Oscar nominations, the All-Star Top 24 who got the top scores when you combine the last two years’ nominations and the thousands of Users who make up the largest (and often savviest) bloc of predictors.
Casey Affleck, “Manchester by the Sea” – 7/4
Denzel Washington, “Fences” – 10/3
Ryan Gosling, “La La Land” – 5/1
Andrew Garfield, “Hacksaw Ridge” – 8/1
Viggo Mortensen, “Captain Fantastic” – 12/1
The Experts strongly favor Casey Affleck for the win for “Manchester by the Sea,” with 23 out of 28 backing him: Thelma Adams (Gold Derby), Matt Atchity (Rotten Tomatoes), Erik Davis (Fandango), Edward Douglas (Weekend Warrior), Joyce Eng (TV Guide), Bonnie Fuller (Hollywood Life), Michael Hogan (Vanity Fair), Matthew Jacobs (Huffington Post), Dave Karger (IMDb) Scott Mantz (Access Hollywood), Jack Mathews (Gold Derby), Michael Musto (Out.com), Tom O’Neil (Gold Derby), Paul Sheehan (Gold Derby), Keith Simanton (IMDb), Nicole Sperling (Entertainment Weekly), Sasha Stone (Awards Daily), Anne Thompson (IndieWire), Peter Travers (Rolling Stone), Brian Truitt (USA Today), Adnan Virk (ESPN), Jeffrey Wells (Hollywood Elsewhere), and Susan Wloszczyna (RogerEbert.com).
This would be Affleck’s second Oscar nomination and his first win. He previously contended for Best Supporting Actor for “The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford” (2007).
The five remaining Experts predict a victory for Denzel Washington for “Fences”: Tim Gray (Variety), Tariq Khan (Fox News), Kevin Polowy (Yahoo), Christopher Rosen (Entertainment Weekly) and Gleen Whipp (LA Times). Out of our five predicted nominees, Washington is the only past winner. He won Best Supporting Actor for “Glory” (1989) and Best Actor for “Training Day” (2001). This would be his seventh nomination for acting, and he could pick up additional bids as a producer and director of the film.
Meanwhile, five of our seven Editors agree that Affleck is out front — Chris Beachum, Rob Licuria, Tom O’Neil, Paul Sheehan and myself — while Marcus James Dixon and Matt Noble are holding out for Washington.
The Top 24 Users strongly favor Affleck as well, with 21 of those elite predictors giving him best odds, including JasonOsia, who had the highest accuracy predicting last year’s Oscar nominations (83%). The other four top users pick Washington instead.
Our All-Star users are also heavily in favor of Affleck as the Best Actor frontrunner. Twenty of them are betting on him to prevail, while three forecast Washington.
None of our Experts, Editors, Top Users or All-Stars are predicting Ryan Gosling (“La La Land”), Andrew Garfield (“Hacksaw Ridge”) or Viggo Mortensen (“Captain Fantastic”) to win, though they are nevertheless likely nominees according to our odds. But also be wary of potential surprises from Joel Edgerton (“Loving,” 40/1 odds) and Tom Hanks (“Sully,” 50/1 odds).
Be sure to make your Oscar predictions. Weigh in now with your picks so that Hollywood insiders can see how this film is faring in our Oscar odds. You can keep changing your predictions right up until just before nominations are announced on January 24 at 5:00 am PT/8:00 am ET. Be sure to read our contest rules. And join in the fierce debate over the Oscars taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our forums.