The 2017 Oscar race for Best Actress is one of the closest of the year, with Emma Stone (“La La Land”), Natalie Portman (“Jackie”) and Isabelle Huppert (“Elle”) all winning key precursor awards and Meryl Streep (“Florence Foster Jenkins”) coming on strong at just the right time. Who will make the cut in this race when the final contenders are announced on Tuesday, January 24?
These official racetrack odds below are derived from the predictions of Expert film journalists along with the Gold Derby Editors who cover awards year-round, the Top 24 Users who got the top scores predicting last year’s Oscar nominations, the All-Star Top 24 who got the top scores when you combine the last two years’ nominations and the thousands of Users who make up the largest (and often savviest) bloc of predictors.
The Experts slightly favor Stone in what looks like a close two-way race, with 17 out of 28 backing her: Thelma Adams (Gold Derby), Matt Atchity (Rotten Tomatoes), Erik Davis (Fandango), Edward Douglas (Weekend Warrior), Bonnie Fuller (Hollywood Life), Dave Karger (IMDb), Scott Mantz (Access Hollywood), Jack Mathews (Gold Derby), Michael Musto (Out.com), Kevin Polowy (Yahoo), Christopher Rosen (Entertainment Weekly), Nicole Sperling (Entertainment Weekly), Sasha Stone (Awards Daily), Brian Truitt (USA Today), Adnan Virk (ESPN), Jeffrey Wells (Hollywood Elsewhere) and Glenn Whipp (LA Times). This would be Stone’s second Oscar nomination and her first win. She previously contended for Best Supporting Actress for “Birdman” (2014), which won Best Picture two years ago.
Another 10 Experts predict a victory for Portman: Joyce Eng (TV Guide), Tim Gray (Variety), Michael Hogan (Vanity Fair), Matthew Jacobs (Huffington Post), Tariq Khan (Fox News), Tom O’Neil (Gold Derby), Paul Sheehan (Gold Derby), Keith Simanton (IMDb), Peter Travers (Rolling Stone) and Susan Wloszczyna (RogerEbert.com). Portman has been nominated twice before, winning Best Actress for “Black Swan” (2010).
Anne Thompson (IndieWire) is the only Expert predicting a victory for Annette Bening (“20th Century Women”), who has four previous Oscar nominations but has under-performed this season despite a Golden Globe nomination for Best Film Comedy/Musical Actress. Bening ranks sixth in our overall predictions with 18/1 odds.
However, four of our seven Editors give Portman the advantage — Marcus James Dixon, Tom O’Neil, Paul Sheehan and myself — while Chris Beachum and Matt Noble are holding out for Stone and Rob Licuria is going out on a limb for Huppert.
The Top 24 Users strongly favor Stone, with 16 of those elite predictors giving her best odds, but JasonOsia, who had the highest accuracy predicting last year’s Oscar nominations (83%), is among the eight outliers forecasting a Portman victory.
Our All-Star users are also in favor of Stone as the Best Actress frontrunner. Sixteen of them are betting on her to prevail, while six forecast Portman.
None of our Experts, Editors, Top Users or All-Stars are predicting Amy Adams (“Arrival”) or Streep to win, though they are nevertheless likely nominees according to our odds. But also be wary of a potential surprise from Ruth Negga (“Loving,” 25/1 odds).
Be sure to make your Oscar predictions. Weigh in now with your picks so that Hollywood insiders can see how this film is faring in our Oscar odds. You can keep changing your predictions right up until just before nominations are announced on January 24 at 5:00 am PT/8:00 am ET. Be sure to read our contest rules. And join in the fierce debate over the Oscars taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our forums.