The 2017 Oscar conversation for Best Picture has been dominated by “La La Land,” which recently swept the Golden Globes with seven victories out of seven nominations. But is it unbeatable? Who will make the cut in this race when the final contenders are announced on Tuesday, January 24?
These official racetrack odds below are derived from the predictions of Expert film journalists along with the Gold Derby Editors who cover awards year-round, the Top 24 Users who got the top scores predicting last year’s Oscar nominations, the All-Star Top 24 who got the top scores when you combine the last two years’ nominations and the thousands of Users who make up the largest (and often savviest) bloc of predictors.
“La La Land” – 9/2
“Manchester by the Sea’ – 7/1
“Moonlight” – 7/1
“Arrival” – 10/1
“Fences” – 11/1
“Lion” – 11/1
“Hell or High Water” – 12/1
“Hacksaw Ridge” – 14/1
“ ” – 18/1
“Silence” – 25/1
The Experts overwhelmingly favor “La La Land,” with 27 out of 28 backing it: Thelma Adams (Gold Derby), Matt Atchity (Rotten Tomatoes), Erik Davis (Fandango), Edward Douglas (Weekend Warrior), Joyce Eng (TV Guide), Bonnie Fuller (Hollywood Life), Tim Gray (Variety), Michael Hogan (Vanity Fair), Matthew Jacobs (Huffington Post), Dave Karger (IMDb), Tariq Khan (Fox News), Scott Mantz (Access Hollywood), Jack Mathews (Gold Derby), Michael Musto (Out.com), Tom O’Neil (Gold Derby), Kevin Polowy (Yahoo), Christopher Rosen (Entertainment Weekly), Paul Sheehan (Gold Derby), Keith Simanton (IMDb), Nicole Sperling (Entertainment Weekly), Sasha Stone (Awards Daily), Peter Travers (Rolling Stone), Brian Truitt (USA Today), Adnan Virk (ESPN), Jeffrey Wells (Hollywood Elsewhere), Glenn Whipp (LA Times) and Susan Wloszczyna (RogerEbert.com).
Anne Thompson (IndieWire) is the only Expert predicting the indie drama “Manchester by the Sea.”
Meanwhile, our Editors are unanimous that “La La Land” will win: Chris Beachum, Marcus James Dixon, Rob Licuria, Matt Noble, Tom O’Neil, Paul Sheehan and myself all favor the modern-day musical.
The Top 24 Users strongly favor “La La Land” as well, though they’re not quite unanimous, with 20 of those elite predictors giving it best odds, including JasonOsia, who had the highest accuracy predicting last year’s Oscar nominations (83%). Three others favor “Manchester by the Sea,” while one is backing “Moonlight.”
Our All-Star users are also in favor of “La La Land” as the Best Picture frontrunner. Twenty-three of them are betting on it to prevail, while one renegade is holding out for “Silence.”
None of our Experts, Editors, Top Users or All-Stars are predicting the rest of the field, though they are nevertheless top-10 favorites according to our odds. But also be wary of a potential surprise from “Jackie” (40/1 odds) or “Loving” (80/1 odds). And remember that not all of our top 10 films may make it in; for the last two years there have been eight nominees, and in the three years before that there were nine.
Be sure to make your Oscar predictions. Weigh in now with your picks so that Hollywood insiders can see how this film is faring in our Oscar odds. You can keep changing your predictions right up until just before nominations are announced on January 24 at 5:00 am PT/8:00 am ET. Be sure to read our contest rules. And join in the fierce debate over the Oscars taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our forums.