Gold Derby’s 29 film Experts have weighed in on all of Sunday’s Oscar categories and according to our official racetrack odds these journalists drawn from major media are predicting that only five of the nine Best Picture nominees (55%) will take home an award. That is lower than last year when six of the eight Best Picture contenders (75%) took home Oscars (“Brooklyn” and “The Martian” did not) and in 2014 when the entire Best Picture roster of eight won at least one Academy Award.
This year’s lower percentage is due to the large haul predicted for Best Picture frontrunner “La La Land.” Experts give the film winning odds in 10 categories: Best Picture, Best Director (Damien Chazelle), Best Actress (Emma Stone), Best Cinematography, Best Costume Design, Best Film Editing, Best Production Design, Best Score, Best Song (“City of Stars”) and Best Sound Mixing.
However, while “La La Land” is the clear frontrunner in nine of these races, the Experts are split on costume design, with only 16 predicting it to prevail there. The other 13 experts are divided between “Jackie” (10), “Florence Foster Jenkins” (2) and “Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them” (1).
Another category on which the Experts are divided is Best Actor. Sixteen Experts are predicting Denzel Washington will win his third statuette for his performance in “Fences” while the other 13 are backing Casey Affleck for “Manchester by the Sea.” Washington’s co-star Viola Davis has the backing of all 29 Experts to win Best Supporting Actress.
Whether Affleck beats Washington or not, “Manchester by the Sea” is all but guaranteed to take home the Oscar for Best Original Screenplay with 24 Experts tipping it there.
The Adapted Screenplay field looks to be an even surer thing for “Moonlight” (28 Experts), which is also widely expected to win for Mahershala Ali in Best Supporting Actor.
The fifth Best Picture nominee predicted to win at least one Oscar is “Hacksaw Ridge,” with 23 Experts forecasting it to follow up its MPSE guild victories by taking home the Best Sound Editing award.
Of the other four films nominated for Best Picture, “Hidden Figures” is the only one that all 29 Experts agree will go home empty-handed. Not good news for the box office blockbuster that just won the SAG Award for Best Film Ensemble.
Though it does not have leading odds in any of its races, “Lion” could pull off an upset in Best Supporting Actor for Dev Patel and/or Best Cinematography, with two Experts predicting it in each of these categories.
Two experts say “Arrival” could surprise in Best Cinematography, Production Design or Sound Editing while one favors it chances in Best Adapted Screenplay or Film Editing.
And “Hell or High Water” is predicted by one Expert to have a shot at a win with Jeff Bridges for Best Supporting Actor.
Aside from the shorts categories where they are not eligible and the foreign, animated and documentary races where Best Picture nominees are rarities, the fields for Best Makeup and Hairstyling and Best Visual Effects are the only ones in which a Best Picture nominee does not feature among the contenders. In those contests, the Experts are predicting victories for “Star Trek Beyond” (20 Experts) and “The Jungle Book” (23 Experts), respectively.
Be sure to make your Oscar predictions. Weigh in now with your picks so that Hollywood insiders can see how their films are faring in our Oscar odds. You can keep changing your predictions right up until just before winners are announced on February 26 at 5:00 pm PT/8:00 pm ET. And join in the fierce debate over the 2017 Oscars taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our forums.