When the Oscar nominations for Best Song are unveiled on Tuesday, January 24, there’s a good chance we’ll hear “La La Land” named twice: for both “City of Stars” and “Audition (The Fools Who Dream).” Is there a risk of vote-splitting here? If so, what are the other potential nominees that could take down the reigning Best Song champ at the Golden Globes?
These official racetrack odds below are derived from the predictions of Expert film journalists along with the Gold Derby Editors who cover awards year-round, the Top 24 Users who got the top scores predicting last year’s Oscar nominations, the All-Star Top 24 who got the top scores when you combine the last two years’ nominations and the thousands of Users who make up the largest (and often savviest) bloc of predictors.
“City of Stars” (“La La Land”) — 9/5 odds
“How Far I’ll Go” (“Moana”) — 7/2 odds
“Audition (The Fools Who Dream)” (“La La Land”) — 5/1 odds
“Can’t Stop the Feeling” (“Trolls”) — 9/1 odds
“Try Everything” (“Zootopia”) — 22/1 odds
Spoiler: “Runnin'” (“ ”) — 22/1 odds
The Experts strongly favor “City of Stars” for the win, with 17 out of 21 backing it: Thelma Adams (Gold Derby), Erik Davis (Fandango), Edward Douglas (Weekend Warrior), Joyce Eng (TV Guide), Tariq Khan (Fox News), Scott Mantz (Access Hollywood), Jack Mathews (Gold Derby), Michael Musto (Out.com), Tom O’Neil (Gold Derby), Kevin Polowy (Yahoo), Christopher Rosen (Ent.Weekly), Paul Sheehan (Gold Derby), Keith Simanton (IMDB), Sasha Stone (Awards Daily), Peter Travers (Rolling Stone), Brian Truitt (USA Today) and Susan Wloszczyna (RogerEbert.com).
The other four experts are split between “How Far I’ll Go” — Tim Gray (Variety), Matthew Jacobs (Huffington Post) and Adnan Virk (ESPN) predict that “Moana” tune — while Bonnie Fuller (Hollywood Life) goes rogue in predicting “La La Land’s” “Audition.”
Meanwhile, our Editors are nearly unanimous with six predicting an easy victory for “La La Land”: Daniel Montgomery (“Audition”) and Chris Beachum, Marcus James Dixon, Rob Licuria, O’Neil and Sheehan (“City of Stars”). The lone holdout is Matt Noble, who goes out on a limb for “Moana’s” “How Far I’ll Go.”
The Top 24 Users strongly favor “City of Stars” as well, with 15 of those elite predictors giving it best odds. That number includes JasonOsia, who had the highest accuracy predicting last year’s Oscar nominations (83%).
Our All-Star users are also betting on “La La Land” as the Best Song frontrunner. Fourteen of them think “City of Stars” will prevail, while three bank on “Audition.” The only other song to earn first-place votes is “How Far I’ll Go” from “Moana.”
Be sure to make your Oscar predictions so that Hollywood insiders can see how their films are faring in our Oscar odds. You can keep changing your predictions right up until just before nominations are announced on January 24 at 5:00 am PT/8:00 am ET. Be sure to read our contest rules. And join in the fierce debate over the Oscars taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our forums.