The Oscar for Best Supporting Actor is a head-scratcher to predict this year, considering that the Critics’ Choice Awards went with Mahershala Ali (“Moonlight”) and the Golden Globes rewarded Aaron Taylor-Johnson (“Nocturnal Animals”). You’d think that both of these men would now be Oscar-bound, but Taylor-Johnson fails to appear in many of our experts’ rankings. So, who are the four men that are predicted to join Ali in this race when the final contenders are announced on Tuesday, January 24?
These official racetrack odds below are derived from the predictions of Expert film journalists along with the Gold Derby Editors who cover awards year-round, the Top 24 Users who got the top scores predicting last year’s Oscar nominations, the All-Star Top 24 who got the top scores when you combine the last two years’ nominations and the thousands of Users who make up the largest (and often savviest) bloc of predictors.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Mahershala Ali (“Moonlight”) — 17/10 odds
Jeff Bridges (“Hell or High Water”) — 9/2 odds
Dev Patel (“Lion”) — 6/1 odds
Lucas Hedges (“Manchester by the Sea”) — 13/2 odds
Hugh Grant (“Florence Foster Jenkins”) — 14/1 odds
Spoiler: Michael Shannon (“Nocturnal Animals”) — 28/1 odds
The Experts strongly favor Ali for the win, with 24 out of 28 backing him: Thelma Adams (Gold Derby), Matt Atchity (Rotten Tomatoes), Erik Davis (Fandango), Edward Douglas (Weekend Warrior), Joyce Eng (TV Guide), Bonnie Fuller (Hollywood Life), Tim Gray (Variety), Michael Hogan (Vanity Fair), Matthew Jacobs (Huffington Post), Scott Mantz (Access Hollywood) Jack Mathews (Gold Derby), Michael Musto (Out.com), Tom O’Neil (Gold Derby), Christopher Rosen (Entertainment Weekly), Paul Sheehan (Gold Derby), Keith Simanton (IMDB), Nicole Sperling (Ent. Weekly), Sasha Stone (Awards Daily), Anne Thompson (IndieWire), Peter Travers (Rolling Stone), Adnan Virk (ESPN), Jeffrey Wells (Hollywood Elsewhere), Glenn Whipp (LA Times) and Susan Wloszczyna (RogerEbert.com). It would be the first nomination and first win for Ali, who’s having a banner year including roles in “Hidden Figures,” “Luke Cage” and “House of Cards.”
The remaining four Experts are divided three ways. Two of them predict Bridges — Dave Karger (IMDb) and Tariq Khan (Fox News) — while Kevin Polowy (Yahoo) goes out on a limb for Shannon, and Brian Truitt (USA Today) opts for Hedges. Interestingly, none of our experts believes that Taylor-Johnson will win the Oscar for Best Supporting Actor even though he’s the reigning Golden Globe champ.
Meanwhile, our Editors are unanimous with all seven predicting an easy victory for Ali: Chris Beachum, Marcus James Dixon, Rob Licuria, Daniel Montgomery, Matt Noble, O’Neil and Sheehan.
The Top 24 Users strongly favor Ali as well, with 18 of those elite predictors giving him best odds. However, JasonOsia, who had the highest accuracy predicting last year’s Oscar nominations (83%), is going rogue in forecasting Hedges for the win; he has Ali in fourth place.
Our All-Star users are even more strongly in favor of Ali as the Best Supporting Actor frontrunner. Twenty-two of them are betting on him to prevail, while one (GMC) predicts an upset for Bridges.
Be sure to make your Oscar predictions so that Hollywood insiders can see how their films are faring in our Oscar odds. You can keep changing your predictions right up until just before nominations are announced on January 24 at 5:00 am PT/8:00 am ET. Be sure to read our contest rules. And join in the fierce debate over the Oscars taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our forums.