Many Oscar prognosticators consider it a foregone conclusion that two-time nominee Viola Davis (“Fences”) will win Best Supporting Actress this year. After all, that’s who both the Critics’ Choice Awards and Golden Globes honored as their favorite. But surprises happen all the time — just ask Davis herself who many predicted would win Best Actress for “The Help” (2011), until Meryl Streep (“The Iron Lady”) swooped in at the last minute. So, who are the four women that are predicted to join Davis in the Best Supporting Actress race when the final contenders are announced on Tuesday, January 24?
These official racetrack odds below are derived from the predictions of Expert film journalists along with the Gold Derby Editors who cover awards year-round, the Top 24 Users who got the top scores predicting last year’s Oscar nominations, the All-Star Top 24 who got the top scores when you combine the last two years’ nominations and the thousands of Users who make up the largest (and often savviest) bloc of predictors.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Viola Davis (“Fences”)– 17/10 odds
Michelle Williams (“Manchester by the Sea”) — 4/1 odds
Naomie Harris (“Moonlight”) — 9/2 odds
Nicole Kidman (“Lion”) — 15/2 odds
Octavia Spencer (“Hidden Figures”) — 9/1 odds
Spoiler: Greta Gerwig (“20th Century Women”) — 66/1 odds
The Experts strongly favor Davis for the win, with 26 out of 28 backing her: Thelma Adams (Gold Derby), Matt Atchity (Rotten Tomatoes), Erik Davis (Fandango), Edward Douglas (Weekend Warrior), Joyce Eng (TV Guide), Tim Gray (Variety), Michael Hogan (Vanity Fair), Matthew Jacobs (Huffington Post), Dave Karger (IMDb), Tariq Khan (Fox News), Scott Mantz (Access Hollywood), Jack Mathews (Gold Derby), Michael Musto (Out.com), Tom O’Neil (Gold Derby), Kevin Polowy (Yahoo), Christopher Rosen (Entertainment Weekly), Paul Sheehan (Gold Derby), Nicole Sperling (Ent. Weekly), Sasha Stone (Awards Daily), Anne Thompson (IndieWire), Peter Travers (Rolling Stone), Brian Truitt (USA Today), Adnan Virk (ESPN), Jeffrey Wells (Hollywood Elsewhere), Glenn Whipp (LA Times) and Susan Wloszczyna (RogerEbert.com). It would be the third nomination and first win for Davis after prior bids for “The Help” (lead, 2011) and “Doubt” (supporting, 2008).
The remaining two Experts are banking on an upset victory for Williams: Bonnie Fuller (Hollywood Life) and Keith Simanton (IMDB). Ironically, Williams was the frontrunner in this race until Davis made the decision to campaign as a supporting player, as opposed to a lead actress which is where she won the Tony Award for “Fences.”
Meanwhile, our Editors are unanimous with all seven predicting an easy victory for Davis: Chris Beachum, Marcus James Dixon, Rob Licuria, Daniel Montgomery, Matt Noble, O’Neil and Sheehan.
The Top 24 Users strongly favor Davis as well, with 19 of those elite predictors giving her best odds. However, JasonOsia, who had the highest accuracy predicting last year’s Oscar nominations (83%), is going rogue in forecasting Harris for the win; he has Davis in fourth place.
Our All-Star users are even more strongly in favor of Davis as the Best Supporting Actress frontrunner. Twenty-two of them are betting on her to prevail, while one (GMC) predicts an upset for Williams.
Be sure to make your Oscar predictions so that Hollywood insiders can see how their films are faring in our Oscar odds. You can keep changing your predictions right up until just before nominations are announced on January 24 at 5:00 am PT/8:00 am ET. Be sure to read our contest rules. And join in the fierce debate over the Oscars taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our forums.