For the second week in a row, Sarah Lacina leads the derby predictions as the most likely to win “Survivor: Game Changers.” With 9/4 racetrack odds, Sarah comes in ahead of Brad Culpepper (7/2 odds) and Sierra Thomas (13/2 odds), both original Nuku tribe members now in control of an unstable Mana tribe. With a second tribe swap coming in Episode 6, can Sarah, Brad and Sierra maintain their positions at the top? Read my analysis of how these players at the top of the leaderboard are faring and then update your “Survivor 34” predictions in our weekly event.
Last week I addressed how remarkable it is that Sarah led the odds to win considering how little we’ve seen of her strategy in practice this season. In fact, talk of her strategy is actually all we’ve seen! Last time Sarah played she filled the role of an honorable cop, but this time around she’s ready to take on the role of criminal.
Part of this promised criminality is her move last week to secure a secret alliance with Troyzan Robertson, the odd man out as the only original Mana member on the current Tavua tribe. Tavua avoided tribal council once again so we didn’t get to see this alliance pan out yet, but that the show took the time to debrief us on it could suggest that it’ll come into play further down the line. If that’s the case, Sarah is looking like the kind of player that can win.
On the current Mana tribe, Brad and Sierra continue to hold sway over the others. When Debbie Wanner butted heads with Brad last week, Brad kept a cool head and let Debbie have her moment. For Brad, a guy that came off more or less hot-tempered and aggressive in his original season, this was a winning change of pace. He’s definitely showing a more likeable side of himself that could potentially win over a jury.
Sierra is also showing growth compared to her former outing on the show. On “Survivor: Worlds Apart,” Sierra was mostly invisible as a strategist, riding coattails to a fifth-place finish. This time around she seems to be very active in making decisions with Brad. I also get a sense that her and Hali Ford (also from “Worlds Apart”) have a secret alliance brewing that could develop into something no one will see coming.
All three will have to adjust their current strategies to meet the demands of a new swap on the next episode, “Vote Early, Vote Often.” Can’t wait to find out how that changes the game!
Get a closer look at the Season 34 contestants by clicking through our cast photo gallery. In our “Survivor” predictions center, you get to answer the following questions before each episode airs on CBS every Wednesday at 5 p.m. PT / 8 p.m. ET.:
Who will win “Survivor”?
Who will be eliminated?
Who will win Reward?
Who will win Immunity?
Will a hidden idol be played?
Will anybody quit or be medevaced?
Gold Derby readers just like YOU often turn out to be our smartest prognosticators, so it’s important that you give us your predictions. You can continue to update and change your forecasts throughout the week, just click “Save” when you’ve settled on your choices. You’ll compete to win bragging rights and a place of honor on our leaderboard. Be sure to read our contest rules and sound off on the season of “Survivor” in our reality TV forum.