Last week on “Survivor: Game Changers,” Sierra Thomas confidently declared herself the “new sheriff in town,” but this week Gold Derby’s cumulative predictions say differently — we’re now giving Sarah Lacina frontrunner status with 2/1 odds to win. Sierra is fourth place in that race (10/1 odds), just behind Brad Culpepper (second, 4/1 odds) and Andrea Boehlke (third, 6/1 odds). But with 11 players still in the hunt, there’s plenty of time for the game to change so read my analysis of how these players at the top of the leaderboard are faring and then update your “Survivor 34” predictions in our weekly event.
Sarah has been itching to make a big move all season and last week it looks like she made her first one by betraying her alliance with Ozzy Lusth and voting to oust him. Sarah’s betrayal gives her a place inside an alliance that now seemingly has control over everyone else’s life in the game. Sarah joins Brad, Sierra, Troyzan Robertson, Tai Trang and Debbie Wanner in a group of six that has a majority, but as the newest member she occupies the most vulnerable position.
Brad and Sierra have been allies since the beginning of the game and for the most part have controlled the tribal councils they’ve attended. Both Tai and Debbie worked with them on a Mana tribe that sent both Caleb Reynolds and Malcolm Freberg home. Troyzan joined them later after the second swap and built a bond with Brad. Troyzan also has a bond with Sarah though from their time together at the Tavua camp where he was the odd man out, but was approached by Sarah for a secret deal. With so many complicated relationships and pairings within this group of six, Sarah’s spot at the bottom is only tentative and could easily be improved upon in the coming weeks.
Andrea’s rise in our predictions is curious considering she’s now in the minority alliance in addition to being named by multiple castaways as a strategic threat that needs to be taken out. Chief among Andrea’s enemies now is Zeke Smith, an ally since day one that turned on her last week and made moves to eliminate her. Those moves came up short and leaves Zeke on everyone’s chopping block. But unless Sarah flip flops again, Andrea could find herself without enough allies to improve her position.
One longshot path to the end of the game for Andrea is an improbable immunity challenge streak. After winning the first individual immunity challenge and putting up a worthy fight in the second, Andrea definitely has what it takes in her own right to be competitive in every future challenge. Also keep in mind that this season has been an outright slaughterhouse for the big guys — most of the physically dominant male players were taken out very early and now only Brad remains that could possible be considered one on paper.
Get a closer look at the Season 34 contestants by clicking through our cast photo gallery. In our “Survivor” predictions center, you get to answer the following questions before each episode airs on CBS every Wednesday at 5 p.m. PT / 8 p.m. ET.:
Who will win “Survivor”?
Who will be eliminated?
Who will win Reward?
Who will win Immunity?
Will a hidden idol be played?
Will anybody quit or be medevaced?
Gold Derby readers just like YOU often turn out to be our smartest prognosticators, so it’s important that you give us your predictions. You can continue to update and change your forecasts throughout the week, just click “Save” when you’ve settled on your choices. You’ll compete to win bragging rights and a place of honor on our leaderboard. Be sure to read our contest rules and sound off on the season of “Survivor” in our reality TV forum.