It would be an understatement to say that the Emmy race for Best Reality-Competition Program is prone to repeat winners. In 14 years the award has only gone to three shows: “The Amazing Race” (2003-2009, 2011-2012, 2014), “Top Chef” (2010), and the defending champ “The Voice” (2013, 2015-2016). So having won three times in the last four years, “The Voice” would seem like the logical choice to win again. That’s the consensus of our Editors, who cover awards year-round for Gold Derby. But everyone else says the singing competition will be bumped off the throne by first-time nominee “RuPaul’s Drag Race.” So who’s right?
“Drag Race” is backed by our Experts polled from top media outlets, the Top 24 Users who got the highest scores predicting the 2016 Emmy winners, and the All-Star Top 24 who got the highest scores when you combine the last two years’ Emmy results. This comes after years of the series being mostly overlooked by the TV academy. It has been on for nine seasons, but its only previous bids were for Best Makeup (Multi-Camera) in 2015, Best Costumes (Variety/Nonfiction/Reality) in 2016, and Best Reality Host for RuPaul Charles in 2016. Charles’s victory for hosting was the first win ever for the series. But now it’s up for a whopping eight awards including its first ever in this top category, and even one for Best Unstructured Reality Program for the show’s YouTube series “‘Untucked.”
But “The Voice” has just as many nominations, and four out of six Editors are giving it the edge: Chris Beachum, Rob Licuria, Matt Noble, and myself. Going with the consensus by forecasting “Drag Race” are Marcus James Dixon and Paul Sheehan. But there are also three Experts giving their support to “The Voice,” along with three of our Top 24 and seven All-Stars. When all predictions are combined, “The Voice” ranks second with odds of 13/5, which translates to a 28% chance of winning its fourth prize, so it’s right in the thick of it. What do you think?
Be sure to make your Emmy predictions so that Hollywood insiders can see how their TV shows and performers are faring in our Emmy odds. You can keep changing your predictions until just before winners are announced on September 17. And join in the fierce debate over the 2017 Emmys taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our TV forums. Read more Gold Derby entertainment news.