With 2/13 odds from our 15 film experts, Viola Davis (“Fences”) is predicted to win Best Film Supporting Actor at Sunday’s Screen Actors Guild Awards. Davis plays Rose, the wife of a waste collector (Denzel Washington) struggling to raise his family in 1950s America in this adaptation of August Wilson‘s Pulitzer Prize-winning play, helmed by Washington. The film has three total nominations including Best Film Ensemble at the 2017 SAG Awards airing live Sunday on TNT and TBS.
Fourteen of our 15 experts from major media outlets are predicting that Davis will win her fifth SAG Award after victories for “How to Get Away with Murder” (TV actress in 2014 and 2015) and “The Help” (lead actress and film ensemble in 2011). They are: Thelma Adams (Gold Derby), Edward Douglas (Weekend Warrior), Joyce Eng (TV Guide), Tariq Khan (Fox News), Scott Mantz (Access Hollywood), Jack Mathews (Gold Derby), Michael Musto (Out.com), Tom O’Neil (Gold Derby), Paul Sheehan (Gold Derby), Sasha Stone (Awards Daily), Anne Thompson (Indiewire), Peter Travers (Rolling Stone), Brian Truitt (USA Today) and Susan Wloszczyna (RogerEbert.com).
The other lone expert, Bonnie Fuller (Hollywood Life), is banking on an upset victory for Michelle Williams (“Manchester by the Sea”), resulting in 10/1 odds to win. Williams plays Randi Chandler, the ex-wife of a man forced to take care of his teenage nephew after the boy’s father dies in Kenneth Lonergan‘s domestic drama. This would be her first SAG win after four prior losses.
Naomie Harris (“Moonlight”) comes in third place with 50/1 odds to win. Harris plays Paula, the drug-addicted mother of a young man struggling to find his place in the world while growing up in a rough Miami neighborhood in Barry Jenkins‘ coming-of-age drama. This is her first SAG nomination.
In fourth place is Nicole Kidman (“Lion”) with odds of 66/1. Kidman plays Sue Brierley, the adoptive mother of an Indian boy separated from his family in Calcutta in Garth Davis‘ biographical drama. Surprisingly, she has never won a SAG Award despite her impressive career.
Rounding out the nominees, Octavia Spencer (“Hidden Figures”) has 80/1 odds. Spencer plays Dorothy Vaughan, a mathematician who helped NASA launch their first successful space missions in this biographical drama from Theodore Melfi. She previously won a pair of SAG trophies for “The Help” (2011): Best Supporting Actress and as part of the ensemble cast.
Spencer is also the pick to win if you look at the overall combined racetrack odds derived from the predictions of the Experts, Gold Derby Editors who cover awards year-round, the Top 24 Users who got the top scores predicting last year’s SAG winners, the All-Star Top 24 who got the top scores when you combine the last two years’ ceremonies and the thousands of Users who make up the largest (and often savviest) bloc of predictors. Davis has over 1,700 combined predictions with 1/10 odds, followed by Williams in second place with 18/1 odds. Harris follows with 40/1 odds, and then Kidman at 66/1 odds and Spencer at 80/1 odds.
Winning this award from the Screen Actors Guild is of great significance when it comes to forecasting the upcoming Oscars. Since the SAG Awards began in 1994, a total of 15 out of 22 Best Supporting Actress SAG winners later prevailed at the Oscars in the same category, not counting the tie in 1997. The seven exceptions are Kate Winslet (“Sense and Sensibility” in 1995), Lauren Bacall (“The Mirror Has Two Faces” in 1996), Kathy Bates (“Primary Colors” in 1998), Judi Dench (“Chocolat” in 2000), Helen Mirren (“Gosford Park” in 2001), Ruby Dee (“American Gangster” in 2007) and Kate Winslet (“The Reader” in 2008) who actually won the Oscar’s lead prize.
Make your SAG picks and tell industry insiders which shows, films and performers you have out front to win on January 29. You can keep changing your predictions right up until just before the show time. Be sure to make your predictions right here. You’ll compete for a place of honor on our leaderboard and a starring role in next year’s Top 24 users (the two dozen folks who do the best predicting this year’s nominees). Read our contest rules.