Don’t expect a sweep on March 4 when Oscars are handed out. If our predictions are right then the academy will spread the wealth so evenly that no film will win more than three awards. That’s an incredibly rare occurrence; the only time it has happened in the last 70 years was in 2005 when “Brokeback Mountain,” “Crash,” “King Kong” and “Memoirs of a Geisha” claimed three prizes apiece. This year the films projected for triple victories are “Dunkirk,” “The Shape of Water” and “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri.”
Our predictions are based on the combined input of more than 5,000 users (and counting) who have entered their forecasts in our predictions center thus far. That includes Expert journalists we’ve polled from top media outlets, the Editors who cover awards year-round for Gold Derby, the Top 24 Users who got the highest scores predicting last year’s Oscars and the All-Star Top 24 who got the highest scores when you combine the last two years’ predictions. And of course there are thousands of everyday Users, one of whom will most likely make fools of the rest of us with their genius picks.
But getting us all to agree on anything has proven challenging, especially in the race for Best Picture after two consecutive years of surprise winners: “Spotlight” (2015) and “Moonlight” (2016). “Three Billboards” has taken the lead in the home stretch, going into Oscar weekend as the front-runner for Best Picture, Best Actress (Frances McDormand) and Best Supporting Actor (Sam Rockwell). If that’s the case it would be the first film since “Chicago” (2002) to win Best Picture without claiming awards for writing or directing.
“Shape of Water” is also a major threat for Best Picture, but our current projections have it narrowly missing the top category while nevertheless taking Best Director (Guillermo Del Toro), Best Production Design and Best Score. And “Dunkirk,” considered an underdog for Best Picture despite eight nominations, gets best odds for Best Film Editing, Best Sound Mixing and Best Sound Editing.
Only two other films are predicted to win multiple awards: “Coco” (Best Animated Feature, Best Song for “Remember Me”) and “Darkest Hour” (Best Actor for Gary Oldman, Best Makeup and Hairstyling). Do you agree with us that the Oscars will spread the wealth, or are we underestimating the possibility that one of these films will sweep?
Best Film Editing
Best Sound Editing
Best Sound Mixing
“THE SHAPE OF WATER”
Best Director — Guillermo Del Toro
Best Production Design
“THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI”
Best Actress — Frances McDormand
Best Supporting Actor — Sam Rockwell
Best Animated Feature
Best Song — “Remember Me”
Best Actor — Gary Oldman
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
“BLADE RUNNER 2049”
“CALL ME BY YOUR NAME”
Best Adapted Screenplay — James Ivory
Best Animated Short
Best Live Action Short
Best Documentary Short
Best Documentary Feature
“A FANTASTIC WOMAN”
Best Foreign Language Film
Best Original Screenplay — Jordan Peele
Best Supporting Actress — Allison Janney
Best Costume Design
“WAR FOR THE PLANET OF THE APES”
Best Visual Effects
Be sure to check out how our experts rank Oscar contenders in all 24 categories. Use the drop-down menus at the top of each page to see the other categories. Then take a look at the most up-to-date combined odds before you make your Oscar winner predictions. Don’t be afraid to jump in now since you can keep changing your predictions until just before winners are announced on March 4.