2018 Oscars Best Picture predictions: Experts still divided on eve of Golden Globes

With the Golden Globe Awards just hours away, our 29 Oscar experts from major media outlets are hoping to get guidance from these precursor awards as to what will win Best Picture at the Academy Awards. Their votes are split between seven films, with four of them far out front of the other three.

Jordan Peele‘s social satire “Get Out” gets the votes of a leading eight of our pundits. However, the rest of them are ranking it low enough on their lists that it sits only in second on our Best Picture chart, with odds of 17/2 to win the top Academy Award. (See the individual rankings by experts and the resulting odds.)

Tied for first with leading odds of 7/1 are three films: “Dunkirk,” “Lady Bird” and “The Post.” Christopher Nolan‘s WWII epic “Dunkirk” is the longtime frontrunner and has seven experts in its corner; however, that is down from an even dozen at the start of last month. Greta Gerwig‘s coming-of-age charmer “Lady Bird” and Steven Spielberg‘s docudrama “The Post” each have the votes of five experts. But with the rest of our prognosticators ranking them highly enough, their overall support is equal to that of “Dunkirk.”

Our other four experts are split among three films. Two experts are taken with Guillermo del Toro‘s fantasy “The Shape of Water”; one is enamored with Luca Guadagnino‘s romance “Call Me By Your Name,” which was the big winner at LAFCA; and another likes the look of Martin McDonagh‘s character study “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri.”

See how our experts rank Oscar contenders according to the likelihood of winning in the key races. Use the drop-down menus at the top of each page to see the other categories.

Here’s how the Oscar Best Picture predictions break down by expert as well as the most up-to-date odds for each of the top 10 contenders to win:

BEST PICTURE
1. “Dunkirk”: Seven experts (7/1 odds)
Tim Gray (Variety)
Dave Karger (IMDB)
Michael Musto (NewNowNext)
Krista Smith (Vanity Fair)
Anne Thompson (Indiewire)
Peter Travers (Rolling Stone)
Sara Vilkomerson (Entertainment Weekly)

2. “The Post”: Five experts (7/1 odds)
Bonnie Fuller (Hollywood Life)
Andrea Mandell (USA Today)
Jack Mathews (Gold Derby)
Keith Simanton (IMDB)
Brian Truitt (USA Today)

3. “Lady Bird”: Five experts (7/1 odds)
Thelma Adams (Gold Derby)
Erik Davis (Fandango)
Joyce Eng (Gold Derby)
Glenn Whipp, Los Angeles Times
Susan Wloszczyna (RogetEbert.com)

4. “Get Out”: Eight experts (8/1 odds)
Kyle Buchanan (New York)
Edward Douglas
Grae Drake (Rotten Tomatoes)
Matthew Jacobs (Huffington Post)
Scott Mantz (Access Hollywood)
Kevin Polowy (Yahoo)
Chris Rosen (EW)
Sasha Stone (Awards Daily)

5. “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”: Two experts (17/2 odds)
Tom O’Neil (Gold Derby)

6. “The Shape of Water”: Two experts (17/2 odds)
Tariq Khan (Fox News)
Adnan Virk (ESPN)

7. “Call Me By Your Name”: One expert (9/1 odds)
Jeffrey Wells (Hollywood-Elsewhere)

8. “Darkest Hour”: One expert (18/1 odds)

9. “The Florida Project”: (18/1 odds)

10. “Mudbound”: (28/1 odds)

2018 Oscars Best Picture: Experts Predictions

DISCUSS All the Oscar contenders with Hollywood insiders in our notorious forums

Be sure to make your Oscar nomination predictions so that Hollywood studio executives can see how their films are faring in our Academy Awards odds. Don’t be afraid to jump in now since you can keep changing your predictions until just before nominees are announced on January 23.

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