There’s no Oscar acting category more confounding than Best Supporting Actress this year. Laurie Metcalf (“Lady Bird“) dominated critics’ prizes. Then Allison Janney (“I, Tonya”) beat her at the Golden Globes and Critics’ Choice Awards. So it’s no wonder that at the SAG Awards our users are sharply divided. This could be the deciding event to determine who really has the Oscar advantage, but it looks like this race will be up in the air right up to when the awards are presented this Sunday night, January 21.
Metcalf has the slight edge in our predictions with leading odds of 21/20. That includes support from seven our of eight Editors who cover awards year-round at Gold Derby: Chris Beachum, Marcus James Dixon, Rob Licuria, Matt Noble, Tom O’Neil, Paul Sheehan, and myself. Metcalf is also the choice of 12 of our All-Star Top 24, who got the highest scores when you combine the last two years’ SAG predictions.
But Janney is close behind with 13/10 odds, and most of the Expert film journalists we’ve polled (9 out of 14) are in her corner: Erik Davis (Fandango), Edward Douglas, Joyce Eng (also a Gold Derby Editor), Tariq Khan (Fox News), Jack Mathews (Gold Derby), Sasha Stone (Awards Daily), Anne Thompson (IndieWire), Peter Travers (Rolling Stone), and Brian Truitt (USA Today). On top of that, Janney is predicted by 15 of our Top 24 Users who got the highest scores forecasting last year’s winners.
So our Experts disagree with our Editors. And our Top 24 Users are going against our All-Stars. Who’s right?
Janney is especially admired by the SAG Awards. She has won six times: twice for her individual dramatic performance in “The West Wing,” twice as a member of the “West Wing” ensemble cast, and twice more with the ensembles of the films “American Beauty” (1999) and “The Help” (2011). However, Metcalf has an additional nomination this year as “Lady Bird” is also a nominee for its ensemble cast. “I, Tonya” didn’t earn a bid in the top category, so there appears to be more support for Metcalf’s film overall.
Long story short: it’s anyone’s guess. But whoever wins the SAG Award might want to start preparing a speech for March 4.
Be sure to make your SAG predictions so that Hollywood insiders can see how their films and performers are faring in our odds. You can keep changing your predictions until just before winners are announced on January 21. And join in the fierce debate over the 2018 SAG Awards taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our movie forums. Read more Gold Derby entertainment news.