Four of our five leading Oscar contenders for Best Cinematography reaped bids from the American Society of Cinematographers on Jan. 9: frontrunner Roger Deakins (“Blade Runner 2049”) as well as Hoyte van Hoytema (“Dunkirk”), Dan Laustsen (“The Shape of Water”) and Bruno Delbonnel (“Darkest Hour”). “Mudbound” lenser Rachel Morrison bumped out predicted Oscar nominee “Call Me By Your Name” cinematographer Sayombhu Mukdeeprom to became the first woman ever cited for her work on a feature film by the guild.
Over its 31-year history, the ASC has predicted 123 of the 155 Oscar nominees, including all of last year’s slate and four of the five in 2016. That gives Morrison a good chance of making history once again as the first woman cinematographer nominated for an Academy Award. Standing in her way could be Deakins, who has lost all 13 of his previous Oscar bids.
Our official Oscar odds are derived from the predictions of Expert film journalists, the Gold Derby Editors who cover awards year-round, the Top 24 Users who got the top scores predicting last year’s Oscar nominations, the All-Star Top 24 who got the top scores when you combine the last two years’ nominations and the thousands of Users who make up the largest (and often savviest) bloc.
Roger Deakins, “Blade Runner 2049” – 19/10
Hoyte van Hoytema, “Dunkirk” – 3/1
Dan Laustsen, “The Shape of Water” – 4/1
Sayombhu Mukdeeprom, “Call Me By Your Name” – 12/1
Bruno Delbonnel “Darkest Hour” – 12/1
The experts strongly favor Deakins for the win with 19 out of 25 backing his bid. Likewise for six of the eight editors, 19 of the Top 24 and 18 All-Stars. Our other six pro pundits are predicting an upset by Hoytema as are two of our editors, and five of both the two dozen users who did the best last year and those who were tops for two years running.
Be sure to make your Oscar nomination predictions so that Hollywood studio executives can see how their films are faring in our Academy Awards odds. Don’t be afraid to jump in now since you can keep changing your predictions until just before nominees are announced on January 23.