2018 DGA Awards predictions: Guillermo del Toro all but certain to win key Oscar precursor

Guillermo del Toro is overwhelmingly favored to win at the Directors Guild of America Awards on Feb. 3. Should he take home the DGA prize for his helming of “The Shape of Water,” he is all but certain to prevail at the Oscars as well. All but seven of the 69 DGA champs went on to pick up an Academy Awards bookend.

Historically, Gold Derby’s predictions have foreseen about two-thirds of the DGA winners. Before the show on Saturday be sure to check out our updated DGA odds. These are generated by the predictions of more than 1,000 Gold Derby readers plus 11 film journalists who are experts at these awards, our in-house team of seven editors, the two dozen readers who did the best at forecasting last year’s DGA awards and those 24 readers who were tops for two years running.

Del Toro has the backing of all of our experts and editors as well as all but a handful of the Top 24 and All-Star users. Several readers in each of those groups are predicting upsets by either Christopher Nolan (“Dunkirk”) or Greta Gerwig (“Lady Bird”). Nobody is expecting either Martin McDonagh (“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”) or Jordan Peele (“Get Out”) to win.

Until del Toro won the Golden Globe, he and Nolan had been locked in a battle for first place on our Oscar chart. Of the 27 regional critics groups to weigh in with their picks of the best of the year, Nolan won over seven of them while del Toro has six such prizes (as does Gerwig).

SEE 2018 DGA nominations: Guillermo del Toro, Greta Gerwig, Christopher Nolan, Jordan Peele in, but Steven Spielberg out

While this marks Nolan’s fourth bid with the guild, the others are first-time nominees. All but McDonagh are in contention at the Oscars; he was snubbed by the directors branch of the academy in favor of Paul Thomas Anderson (“Phantom Thread”).

Peele is heavily favored to win Best First-Time Director. The other contenders in that category are:  Geremy Jasper (“Patti Cake$”), WIlliam Oldroyd (“Lady Macbeth”), Taylor Sheridan (“Wind River”) and Aaron Sorkin (“Molly’s Game”).

PREDICT the Oscar winners now; change them until March 4

Be sure to make your Oscar predictions so that Hollywood insiders can see how their films and performers are faring in our odds. You can keep changing your predictions until just before winners are announced on March 4. And join in the fierce debate over the 2018 Oscars taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our movie forums. Read more Gold Derby entertainment news.

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