If you need any more proof that Best Original Screenplay is the hottest Oscar race of the year, “Get Out” and “Three Billboards Outside of Ebbing, Missouri” are basically tied in our latest combined odds. The former has 3/2 odds of winning with the latter breathing down its neck at 8/5 odds. If you want it in percentages, “Get Out” has 39.33 percent to “Three Billboards”’ 39.21 percent.
The two films have swapped the top spot since “Get Out” won the Writers Guild Award for Jordan Peele on Feb. 11, defeating “Lady Bird,” which is now in third (9/2 odds) in our predictions, followed by “The Shape of Water” (40/1 odds) and “The Big Sick” (80/1 odds). The WGA-ineligible “Three Billboards” briefly held the No. 1 spot before “Get Out” told it to get out of the way. But after “Three Billboards” five-trophy haul at BAFTA on Sunday — including Best Original Screenplay over “Get Out” — Martin McDonagh’s script is climbing back up the Oscar ranks.
The Best Original Screenplay Oscar could be an important bellwether for who wins Best Picture since last five Best Picture champs also took home a screenplay award. “Three Billboards” and “Get Out” are second and third, respectively, behind “The Shape of Water” in our Best Picture predictions. “Three Billboards” has two acting categories locked down, but it was snubbed in Best Director, so a writing win would strengthen its Best Picture case. “Get Out,” meanwhile, could duplicate “Spotlight”’s two wins for Best Original Screenplay and Best Picture two years ago. No film has only won Best Picture since “Grand Hotel” (1932), which was only nominated for the top prize.
Or maybe “Get Out” and “Three Billboards” will tie for screenplay and we’ll have no idea what it means for Best Picture until the envelope is opened.
Be sure to make your Oscar predictions so that Hollywood insiders can see how their films and performers are faring in our odds. You can keep changing your predictions until just before winners are announced on March 4. And join in the fierce debate over the 2018 Oscars taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our movie forums. Read more Gold Derby entertainment news.