Allison Janney (“I, Tonya”) has been unstoppable on the circuit since the televised awards shows began, flipping the script on critical darling Laurie Metcalf (“Lady Bird”). Metcalf is still giving chase to Janney for the Best Supporting Actress BAFTA and Oscar, but there will be one place she’ll prevail, according to our latest predictions: the Independent Spirit Awards.
Metcalf has 1/2 odds over Janney’s 5/2 odds, with seven Experts, three Editors and 18 of our Top 24 Users, who scored the best last year, picking the once and future “Roseanne” star. They’re both well ahead of “The Big Sick”’s Holly Hunter (50/1 odds), “Marjorie Prime”’s Lois Smith (66/1 odds) and “Good Time”’s Taliah Lennice Webster (100/1 odds), none of whom earned Oscar nominations.
Indeed, Metcalf’s quieter but no less superb performance is more in line with what the Indie Spirits usually recognizes. “Lady Bird” also has four nominations to “I, Tonya”’s three, although it missed Best Director for Greta Gerwig in an expanded lineup due to a tie.
However, Metcalf should be aware that, in recent years, the Spirits, which are held the day before the Oscars, haven’t shied away from anointing Oscar frontrunners when they’re in the lineups, like Jennifer Lawrence (“Silver Linings Playbook” ) or Jean Dujardin (“The Artist” ). Four years ago, all four of the Spirits’ acting winners — Cate Blanchett (“Blue Jasmine”), Lupita Nyong’o (“12 Years a Slave”) and “Dallas Buyers Club” stars Matthew McConaughey and Jared Leto — matched the Oscars’ quartet for the first time. This would favor Janney, especially if she nabs the BAFTA by then.
There’s also the fact that this is Janney’s third Indie Spirit nomination — she was up for her supporting turns in “Our Very Own” (2005) and “Life During Wartime” (2010) — while Metcalf is on her first, so the “West Wing” alum has been on their radar for a while.
If Metcalf isn’t victorious, then she should hope the ol’ awards adage comes true: “Win on Saturday, lose on Sunday.”
Be sure to make your Oscar predictions so that Hollywood insiders can see how their films and performers are faring in our odds. You can keep changing your predictions until just before winners are announced on March 4. And join in the fierce debate over the 2018 Oscars taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our movie forums. Read more Gold Derby entertainment news.