Two major televised awards shows have spoken — Critics’ Choice and Golden Globes — and their pick for the Best Actor of the year is Gary Oldman (“Darkest Hour”) for his role as Prime Minister Winston Churchill. A few weeks ago many awards pundits thought the 2018 Oscar race for Best Actor would be a nail-biter between Oldman and Timothee Chalamet (“Call Me By Your Name”). However, after two high-profile acceptance speeches, the veteran thespian looks to have solidified his lead over the 22-year-old newcomer.
Coming up next on the Oscar acting calendar is the SAG Awards, scheduled for January 21. While SAG voters sometimes make an effort to reward up-and-coming stars, the truth of the matter is that veteran actors usually prevail here. Think of when A-lister Denzel Washington (“Fences”) took down Casey Affleck (“Manchester by the Sea”) last year. If that pattern holds, Oldman’s nearly four decades of experience working in the industry should give him a slight edge over Chalamet’s breakthrough performance as gay teenager Elio Perlman.
The Oscar race is essentially over if Oldman runs off with the SAG Award, as he’s favored to do according to Gold Derby’s SAG predictions. Only one Best Actor contender in film history has won the SAG/Critics’ Choice/Golden Globe trifecta and then didn’t go on to take home the Oscar: Russell Crowe for “A Beautiful Mind” (2001). Of course, that blip on the awards radar still means it’s possible for Chalamet to win, so we won’t know for sure until that envelope is opened on Oscar night.
Our Best Actor Oscar odds favor Oldman to prevail with leading 17/10 odds, followed by Chalamet at 7/2. The other contenders are predicted to be Daniel Day-Lewis (“Phantom Thread”) at 11/2 odds, James Franco (“The Disaster Artist”) at 9/1 odds, Daniel Kaluuya (“Get Out”) at 10/1 odds, Tom Hanks (“The Post”) at 22/1 odds and Jake Gyllenhaal (“Stronger”) at 66/1 odds. Who do YOU think will win?
Be sure to check out how our experts rank Oscar contenders in this and the other top races. Use the drop-down menus at the top of each page to see the other categories. Then take a look at the most up-to-date odds before you make make your Oscar nomination predictions. Don’t be afraid to jump in now since you can keep changing your predictions until just before nominees are announced on January 23.