There are five films with a real chance to win the Oscar fight for Best Picture — “The Shape of Water,” “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri,” “Lady Bird,” “Get Out” and “Dunkirk” — but only one of them has no Expert at Gold Derby predicting it to prevail: “Dunkirk.”
That’s crazy, considering it was the Experts’ overwhelming frontrunner last year from summer to December and nothing has happened to diminish it since — no scandal or sudden wave of unpopularity. Perhaps it’s just a case of Oscar ageism. Is it too damn old? “Dunkirk” came out last July and now there are newer, fresher choices to tempt those notoriously fickle academy voters.
But, hold your horses, Derbyites: Some summer releases like “The Hurt Locker” have won Best Picture and others like “Boyhood” have come close in recent years.
Based upon buzz tracked by Gold Derby, “Dunkirk” will probably not get the most number-one votes, true, but it’s going to get a helluva lot of number-two and -three votes – and that’s how “Moonlight,” “Spotlight” prevailed over frontrunners “La La Land” and “The Revenant” thanks to the crazy new preferential ballot.
“Dunkirk” is so popular with academy members that it received the second-most nominations (8) after “The Shape of Water” (13). No acting noms, but that didn’t stop “Slumdog Millionaire,” “Lord of the Rings: Return of the King” or “The Last Emperor” from bagging the top Oscar.
According to our official racetrack odds, “Dunkirk” is ahead to win Best Sound Editing and Mixing. It’s also poised to snag Best Film Editing, which is a key tea leaf. Normally, this category is so crucial to winning Best Picture that you can’t prevail without a nomination and only two other contenders are in the race and they’re both touted as serious rivals to win: “Shape of Water” and “Three Billboards.” Why aren’t we talking about “Dunkirk” the same way, too?
Be sure to make your Oscar predictions so that Hollywood insiders can see how their films and performers are faring in our odds. You can keep changing your predictions until just before winners are announced on March 4. And join in the fierce debate over the 2018 Oscars taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our movie forums. Read more Gold Derby entertainment news.