“Lady Bird” and “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” are the only films nominated in three categories at this weekend’s SAG Awards, so they’re the only films with a chance to join an exclusive club. If one of them wins all three categories, it would be only the fourth film to do so and could also give it a boost as it competes for Best Picture at the Oscars.
The Screen Actors Guild first began handing out awards in 1995 but did not give out the prize for ensemble casts until the following year when “Apollo 13” was the inaugural winner. To date no film has come close to sweeping all six of the film categories: for ensembles and stunt ensembles, lead and supporting actors, and lead and supporting actresses. Currently the record for the most wins is three, held by “American Beauty” (awarded in 2000), “Chicago” (2003), and “The Help” (2012). All three of those triple champs won for their ensemble casts and two individual actors.
As of this writing “Three Billboards” is expected to tie that record with three awards. Its ensemble is predicted to walk away victorious with leading odds of 8/15. The film’s star, Frances McDormand, is forecast to add this award to the Golden Globe and Critics’ Choice Award she’s already won with odds of 4/11. Should she win, McDormand would also be the first woman to do so twice after previously prevailing for “Fargo” in 1997.
After that things could get complicated for “Three Billboards.” For his supporting work Sam Rockwell is also expected to take home a SAG Award to go with his Golden Globe and Critics’ Choice Award. He has a small lead with odds of 8/11. But in order to win at this event he’ll have to overcome a potential vote split with his co-star Woody Harrelson. Harrelson currently ranks fourth with odds of 66/1, but he’s had a great year with additional roles in “War for the Planet of the Apes” and “The Glass Castle.” But competing against a co-star isn’t a problem as long as one them is the clear favorite of the two. “Chicago” supporting actress Catherine Zeta-Jones was the voters’ preference over Queen Latifah in 2003, and Octavia Spencer overtook her “The Help” co-star Jessica Chastain in 2012. Both of those films went on to be three-time winners, so that might bode well for “Three Billboards.”
For “Lady Bird” to win three SAG Awards it might need a lot more luck as it will have to pull off an upset in all three categories. Its ensemble is currently in third place with odds of 17/2. But the ensemble category is especially competitive this year, and much like the Oscar race for Best Picture its really anyone’s to win.
“Lady Bird” lead actress Saoirse Ronan is on McDormand’s heels, residing in second place with odds of 11/2. But the fact that Ronan plays a teenager could make this a difficult trophy for her to snag since no one has won for playing a character so young. Laurie Metcalf, Ronan’s onscreen mother, was upset by another mom at the Golden Globes and Critics’ Choice Awards: Allison Janney (“I, Tonya”). In the SAG Awards supporting race Metcalf is also in second place with odds of 3/2. This is Metcalf’s first individual nomination, and the chance to finally reward a television (“Roseanne”) and Broadway (“A Doll’s House, Part 2”) star could prove too tempting for her fellow actors to pass up.
But even if neither film joins the three-time winners club it will not mean the film is out of the Oscar race for Best Picture. Last year “Moonlight” was only able to win one SAG Award, for Mahershala Ali‘s supporting role — and it still won the academy’s big prize! In a year as competitive as this one, it’s not over until the fat lady (bird) sings.
Be sure to make your SAG predictions so that Hollywood insiders can see how their films and performers are faring in our odds. You can keep changing your predictions until just before winners are announced on January 21. And join in the fierce debate over the 2018 SAG Awards taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our movie forums. Read more Gold Derby entertainment news.