SAG Awards predictions: Gary Oldman (‘Darkest Hour’) way ahead with 1/5 odds, but it’s not quite unanimous

The Oscar race for Best Actor was starting to look uncertain for Gary Oldman (“Darkest Hour”), but things seem to have gotten back on track. He won a Golden Globe despite past criticisms of the Hollywood Foreign Press. And he won the Critics’ Choice Award even though previous critics groups have preferred Timothee Chalamet (“Call Me by Your Name“). Next stop: the SAG Awards, where Oldman is the overwhelming frontrunner with 1/5 odds. But it looks like there’s still a sliver of hope for Chalamet.

As of this writing all 14 Expert film journalists we’ve polled for their predictions say Oldman will win: Thelma Adams (Gold Derby), Erik Davis (Fandango), Edward Douglas, Joyce Eng (Gold Derby), Bonnie Fuller (Hollywood Life), Tariq Khan (Fox News), Jack Mathews (Gold Derby), Tom O’Neil (Gold Derby), Sasha Stone (Awards Daily), Anne Thompson (IndieWire), Peter Travers (Rolling Stone), Brian Truitt (USA Today), Adnan Virk (ESPN), and Susan Wloszczyna (RogerEbert.com).

Oldman also has support from seven out of eight Editors who cover awards year-round for Gold Derby: Chris Beachum, Eng, Marcus James Dixon, Matt Noble, O’Neil, Paul Sheehan, and myself. But we’ve got one renegade, Rob Licuria, who is keeping hope alive for Chalamet. And he’s not the only one.

Chalamet is also backed by two of our Top 24 Users who got the highest scores predicting last year’s SAG Award winners, and three of our All-Star Top 24 who got the highest scores when you combine the last two years’ predictions. When all forecasts are combined from more than 1,900 total users that gives Chalamet second-place odds of 8/1, but just like at the Oscars a win for him would be unprecedented for someone so young. In the 23 previous years of the SAG Awards the youngest winner among leading men was Nicolas Cage, who was 32 when he prevailed for “Leaving Las Vegas” at the 1996 ceremony. The youngest individual male winner in any category was Heath Ledger, who was awarded posthumously in 2009 for his supporting role in “The Dark Knight” after his death the previous year at age 28. Chalamet is 22, so he would be the youngest by far.

Do you agree with our predictions that Oldman is the man to beat with Chalamet as his closest rival? Or are we underestimating the remaining nominees Daniel Kaluuya (“Get Out”), James Franco (“The Disaster Artist”), or Denzel Washington (“Roman J. Israel, Esq.”)?

Be sure to make your SAG predictions so that Hollywood insiders can see how their films and performers are faring in our odds. You can keep changing your predictions until just before winners are announced on January 21. And join in the fierce debate over the 2018 SAG Awards taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our movie forums. Read more Gold Derby entertainment news.

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