Gary Oldman (“Darkest Hour”) has a commanding lead in our Oscar predictions for Best Actor, but his film wasn’t eligible at the Independent Spirit Awards. That opens the door for Timothee Chalamet (“Call Me by Your Name”) to finally pick up some awards hardware after Oldman swept the Golden Globe, SAG, BAFTA and Critics’ Choice Awards. Chalamet is the heavy favorite at the Spirits with leading odds of 1/10.
Those odds are based on the combined forecasts of over 1,800 Gold Derby users who have entered their picks in our predictions center as of this writing. That includes 12 Expert journalists we’ve polled from top media outlets, 11 of whom agree with the consensus that Chalamet will prevail: Erik Davis (Fandango), Edward Douglas (The Tracking Board), Joyce Eng (Gold Derby), Tariq Khan (Fox News), Jack Mathews (Gold Derby), Sasha Stone (Awards Daily), Anne Thompson (IndieWire), Peter Travers (Rolling Stone), Adnan Virk (ESPN), Jeffrey Wells (Hollywood Elsewhere) and Susan Wloszczyna (RogerEbert.com).
Chalamet is also backed by all of our Editors who cover awards year-round for Gold Derby, 21 of our Top 24 Users who got the highest scores predicting last year’s Spirit Award winners, and 21 of our All-Star Top 24 who got the highest scores when you combine the last two years’ predictions. It doesn’t hurt that “Call Me by Your Name” is the biggest nominee at these awards with six total bids, or that Chalamet is one of only two Oscar nominees in contention in this category. Spirit Awards voters often go for the biggest available Oscar contender in a category.
But don’t count out that other Oscar nominee, Daniel Kaluuya (“Get Out“), who ranks second in our predictions with 9/1 odds and support from Expert Keith Simanton (IMDb). “Get Out” also has ample nominations support with five bids, and it’s currently the front-runner to win Best Picture and Best Director at these awards, so Kaluuya could be carried along by a sweep. And Kaluuya recently won a head-to-head match-up against Chalamet, claiming the Rising Star Award at the BAFTAs, so maybe we shouldn’t dismiss him.
Do you agree with our predictions that Chalamet has an overwhelming lead? Will Kaluuya surprise? Or are we underestimating the remaining nominees James Franco (“The Disaster Artist”), Robert Pattinson (“Good Time”) and Harris Dickinson (“Beach Rats”)?
Be sure to make your Indie Spirit predictions so that Hollywood studio executives and top name stars can see how their films are faring in our odds. Don’t be afraid to jump in now since you can keep changing your predictions until just before winners are announced on March 3. And join in the fierce debate over the 2018 Spirit Awards taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our film forums. Read more Gold Derby entertainment news.