Oscars: Best Picture - Overview

After expanding the Best Picture field from five to 10 for the past two years, this year's slate of contenders will number somewhere between those two numbers. To reap a bid, a film will have to garner at least 5% of the overall first place votes.

The current system of preferential balloting with upwards of 10 rounds of vote counting will be replaced by a single round of tallying, including the redistribution of votes. Any film listed first on 9% of the total ballots is guaranteed a nomination. If a film is listed first on more than 10.8% of the total ballots, it triggers the surplus rule. The ballots for such films are apportioned as follows: the requisite share of the vote goes to the first place film such that it reaches the threshold of 9% and the remaining share goes to the second place film.

Predict the Best Picture nominees here!

Following this redistribution, any film listed first on less than 1% of ballots is eliminated and these ballots are redistributed to the second place film. Thus ends the vote counting and any film with at least 5% of the total ballots is a Best Picture nominee. Those ballots listing films in first that number between 1% and 5% of the total ballots are not counted.

Had this system been in place between 2001 and 2008, there would never have been 10 Best Picture nominees. Rather, there would have been between five and nine contenders.

After reviewing the odds below and the category handicapping, enter your predictions here.



50 50

A Dangerous Method

A Separation

Another Happy Day

Bridesmaids

Carnage

Contagion

Drive

Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2

Hugo

J. Edgar

Margin Call

Martha Marcy May Marlene

Midnight in Paris

Moneyball

My Week with Marilyn

Rampart

Shame

Take Shelter

The Adventures of Tintin

The Artist

The Descendants

The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

The Help

The Ides of March

The Iron Lady

The Tree of Life

Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

War Horse

We Bought a Zoo

We Need to Talk About Kevin

Young Adult

Experts' Vote Editors' Vote Users' Vote Total Vote Experts' odds Editors' odds Users' odds Total odds
The Artist  The Artist279930966
 11/10
 1/1
 19/10
 6/5
The Descendants  The Descendants30212215
 9/2
 13/2
 11/2
 11/2
The Help  The Help108687
 10/1
 12/1
 10/1
 10/1
Hugo  Hugo002121
 14/1
 10/1
 20/1
 14/1
Midnight in Paris  Midnight in Paris002121
 20/1
 16/1
 20/1
 20/1
Moneyball  Moneyball001616
 25/1
 20/1
 25/1
 25/1
War Horse  War Horse00129129
 33/1
 50/1
 12/1
 25/1
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo  The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo001515
 33/1
 33/1
 50/1
 33/1
The Tree of Life  The Tree of Life003131
 50/1
 50/1
 33/1
 50/1
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close  Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close002727
 100/1
 100/1
 50/1
 100/1
The Ides of March  The Ides of March001111
 100/1
 100/1
 100/1
 100/1
Bridesmaids  Bridesmaids0022
 100/1
 100/1
 100/1
 100/1
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2  Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2003434
 100/1
 100/1
 50/1
 100/1
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy  Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy001111
 100/1
 100/1
 100/1
 100/1
Drive  Drive0055
 100/1
 100/1
 100/1
 100/1
J. Edgar  J. Edgar004040
 100/1
 100/1
 50/1
 100/1
A Separation  A Separation0033
 100/1
 100/1
 100/1
 100/1
We Bought a Zoo  We Bought a Zoo0000
 100/1
 100/1
 100/1
 100/1
Another Happy Day  Another Happy Day0000
 100/1
 100/1
 100/1
 100/1
Young Adult  Young Adult0000
 100/1
 100/1
 100/1
 100/1
Contagion  Contagion0033
 100/1
 100/1
 100/1
 100/1
Rampart  Rampart0000
 100/1
 100/1
 100/1
 100/1
We Need to Talk About Kevin  We Need to Talk About Kevin0000
 100/1
 100/1
 100/1
 100/1
The Adventures of Tintin  The Adventures of Tintin0044
 100/1
 100/1
 100/1
 100/1
Shame  Shame0022
 100/1
 100/1
 100/1
 100/1
Margin Call  Margin Call0022
 100/1
 100/1
 100/1
 100/1
50 50  50 500000
 100/1
 100/1
 100/1
 100/1
The Iron Lady  The Iron Lady0077
 100/1
 100/1
 100/1
 100/1
Take Shelter  Take Shelter0011
 100/1
 100/1
 100/1
 100/1
My Week with Marilyn  My Week with Marilyn0055
 100/1
 100/1
 100/1
 100/1
Martha Marcy May Marlene  Martha Marcy May Marlene0000
 100/1
 100/1
 100/1
 100/1
Carnage  Carnage0055
 100/1
 100/1
 100/1
 100/1
A Dangerous Method  A Dangerous Method0011
 100/1
 100/1
 100/1
 100/1

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